We are traders and masters of risk. When you become pro you stop over analysing and all you do is sit there, and wait, and wait, and wait some more until you find the perfect trade. What I am saying is that the market makes all the decisions. Our only decision is to listen, feel, and respond to the market’s siren. Always and without exception. Remember, the market never lies. It is only we who lie to ourselves.
Monday, February 25, 2013
Looking Ahead: February 25 through March 1, 2013
Equities were mixed last week as investors responded to currency moves, tepid economic data and FOMC minutes. The Eurozone will remain in recession according to lowered forecasts from the EU. Europe’s flash PMIs showed the currency union continues to contract though Germany continues to show slight growth.
Investors will be paying close attention to Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s Congressional testimony on Tuesday and Wednesday, especially after the strong reaction to the minutes of the FOMC’s last meeting. Key Japanese data for January will be published at week’s end. And hopefully, we will know who Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe selects to be his new governor of the Bank of Japan.
Tuesday, February 19, 2013
Looking Ahead: February 18 through February 22, 2013
Investors focused on the currency markets and in particular, the decline of the yen against the euro and U.S. dollar. As expected the Bank of Japan left its monetary policy unchanged at the BoJ waited for the appointment of the new governor and his two deputies. Economic data especially in Japan and Europe disappointed.
Given the declines in GDP, flash PMI indexes will get close attention when they are released Thursday. The German ZEW and Ifo surveys will be in focus given the decline in fourth quarter GDP as investors look for signs of recovery.
Sunday, February 10, 2013
Looking Ahead: February 11 through February 15, 2013
Three central banks met and left their policy interest rates unchanged. The Reserve Bank of Australia left its key rate at 3.0 percent, the Bank of England kept its 0.5 percent rate while the European Central Bank’s rate remained at 0.75 percent as expected. Economic data centered on merchandise trade. China’s January trade data improved and showed both global and domestic recovery. Composite PMI indexes for the most part showed that activity was stabilizing and improving (except in France).
The Bank of Japan meets this week — no policy change is anticipated until a new governor is selected. The Bank of England releases its quarterly Inflation Report. Many Asian markets will be closed to celebrate the Lunar New Year. Mainland China’s financial market will be shut for the entire week while the Hong Kong market will be closed from Monday through Wednesday.
Sunday, February 3, 2013
Looking Ahead: February 4 through February 8, 2013
Equities were mixed last week. The slew of data indicated an improving but uneven global economic landscape. When revisions were taken into account, the U.S. employment report showed that employment growth was better than originally estimated. Other data — with the exception of fourth quarter GDP — showed a growing economy at a stable pace that even the FOMC acknowledged. Elsewhere, the data were mixed but biased towards the positive.
The Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of England and the European Central Bank meet this week. Services PMIs will be released and investors will get a look at this part of the economy in January. Merchandise trade and industrial production dominate data releases. China releases merchandise trade and the consumer and producer price indexes for January.
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