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Sunday, September 29, 2013

Looking Ahead: September 30 through October 4, 2013

Investors were cautious last week as they monitored the ongoing battles in Washington DC over the budget for the new fiscal year beginning October 1st and raising of the debt ceiling which needs to be done by October 17. Little attention was paid to economic data. The Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank meet this week. Policy changes are not expected. A slew of new economic data will be released including Japan’s important Tankan report as well as manufacturing, services and composite purchasing managers’ indexes for Eurozone members, the UK, U.S., Japan and India. However, focus will continue to be on the U.S. Congress and decisions about the budget and then the debt ceiling. The repercussions of these decisions will reverberate globally.

Sunday, September 15, 2013

Looking Ahead: September 16 through September 20, 2013

Concerns about Syria were prominent during the week. As diplomatic efforts to resolve the problem began, fears receded and investor angst concerning possible Federal Reserve action kept investors on the sidelines as they waited for the FOMC announcement and the Fed chairman’s post meeting press conference. The UK continued to post better than expected economic data, this time on the labour market. China’s data showed the economy there beginning to stabilize. The FOMC finally will announce its decision concerning the reduction of Fed stimulus this week. Also on tap, the Reserve Bank of India under its new governor Raghuram Rajan will try to find ways to stimulate the Indian economy and bring about reforms that are desperately needed. The Bank of England releases minutes from its September monetary policy board meeting. They will be parsed carefully as bank watchers look for further clarification of the Bank’s forward guidance.

Sunday, September 8, 2013

Looking Ahead: September 9 through September 13, 2013

The Reserve Bank of Australia, European Central Bank and the Banks of Canada, Japan and England refrained from changing their respective monetary policies. Economic data were mixed with August PMIs showing improvement for the most part. Investors continue to wait to see what the Federal Reserve’s next policy move will be. The upcoming week will feature the monthly plethora of data from China including August consumer and producer prices, industrial output, merchandise trade and retail sales. Both the UK and Australia report labour market data. But investors will also be monitoring the situation in Syria and of course FedSpeak for the last clues before the pre-FOMC meeting blackout period.