Looking Ahead: Week of June 25 through 29

Is housing improving? Housing updates continue with pending and new home sales and Case-Shiller. Recent reports on manufacturing have been mixed. Clarification could come from the regional Dallas, Richmond, and Kansas City Feds, as well as the durables orders report. Consumer spending has slowed and this week’s consumer confidence and sentiment numbers could clarify where spending is headed. Also honing in on the consumer will be the personal income report. Also, the Supreme Court could rule on so-called “Obama Care” as soon as Monday as the Court wraps up its current session. This could impact the health care provider sector.

Looking Ahead: Week of June 17 through 22

Looking Ahead: Week of June 18 through 22 

The Bank of Japan, Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the Swiss National Bank left their respective monetary policies unchanged. However, all referred to the situation in Europe in their post meeting statement and reiterated their preparedness to act should it be necessary. US economic data disappointed for the most part. However, investors looked upon it as more reasons that the Federal Reserve will add stimulus to boost flagging growth when it meets on June 19^th and 20^th.

In Athens, the election was seen as too close to call. Alexis Tsipras, leader of the main anti-bailout leftist party SYRIZA, said on Thursday the deal with Greece's international lenders, which has helped push the economy into a depression, would not last beyond the weekend. SYRIZA is running neck-and-neck with the mainstream conservatives for Sunday's parliamentary vote, a re-run of an election last month that produced a stalemate in which neither the pro nor anti bailout camps was able to form a coalition. European leaders, however, have warned that Greece will get no help if it reneges. Officials have also hinted that Athens might be granted more time to achieve its fiscal targets if a new government sticks to the core reforms in the program.

Economic news was more on the negative side this past week.  Still, momentum is on the positive side but sluggish.  The big issue in the near term is whether Greek elections favor pro-euro candidates or not.  The outcome will likely impact financial markets more than real activity in the U.S.

Highlights are the highly anticipated Wednesday FOMC statement, FOMC forecasts, and chairman’s press conference. Traders expect at least some modest additional accommodation.  But housing gets second billing with the NAHB housing index on Monday and housing starts the next day and existing home sales and FHFA house prices on Thursday.

Looking Ahead: Week of June 10 through 15

Bottom line
The week was dominated by central bank activities as investors fretted about slowing economic growth. The festering problems with Spanish banks also put investors on alert. Economic data in Europe disappointed while data from Australia surprised on the positive side. Tensions will build as investors await the June 17th Greek election. But they will also be awaiting the results of France’s parliamentary elections scheduled for June 10th and June 17th to see if President François Hollande will get a majority. The Bank of Japan meets at the end of the week.

Looking Ahead: Week of June 11 through 15
The consumer, manufacturing, and inflation news are highlighted this week. With sluggish employment, retail sales on Wednesday will get extra attention along with sentiment on Friday. Durables orders have been soft, so traders will closely parse industrial production and Empire State. Lower oil prices may be boosting discretionary income so the PPI and CPI reports will be closely watched.

Looking Ahead: Week of June 4 through 8

Looking Ahead: Week of June 4 through 8

The recovery currently is wobbly but still positive. The consumer appears to be more optimistic than businesses as spending is moderately strong even though hiring has slowed to a crawl. Manufacturing and housing are still expanding but at a sluggish pace instead of moderately strong some months ago. But inflation is softer, giving consumers more spending power and the Fed more room to remain very accommodative. After the past week’s deluge of data, the upcoming week is light. Tuesday’s ISM non-manufacturing report likely garners attention for signs of whether the economy is as weak as Friday’s employment report. Similarly, traders will parse Wednesday’s Beige Book for the direction of growth and the possibility of QE3. At week’s end, the international trade report will give indications of the impact of Europe on exports and whether businesses are optimistic enough to boost imports on their shelves and in their showrooms.