Looking Ahead: December 24 to December 28, 2012

U.S. budget negotiations dominated the headlines while economic data barely got a glance. The Bank of Japan met and acceded mostly to the wishes of the prime minister elect who will take office on December 26th after a parliamentary vote. The December 24th week is a quiet one with only Japan releasing its monthly slew of reports for November. However, activity will pick up the following week in the New Year. Best wishes for a happy holiday season and New Year.

Looking Ahead: Week of December 17 through 21

The economy is bumping along on a low but positive trajectory. The consumer sector somehow keeps showing more life than you might expect. Manufacturing is sluggish but not negative. And the Fed has been extremely creative in keeping rates low and liquidity in the financial markets. Still, resolution of the fiscal cliff is needed—preferably by Christmas but many would be happy to merely beat the January 1 deadline. Upcoming news is loaded with data on manufacturing, housing, and the consumer. Hurricane Sandy has caused sharp down and up swings in production numbers but net still soft. So, regional Fed manufacturing news from New York, Philadelphia, and Kansas City will garner attention. Housing has been on a moderate uptrend and traders want to see housing keep the recovery going. Updates are posted for housing starts and permits, and existing home sales. The consumer sector recently has been mixed with spending moderately healthy but sentiment dropping, suggesting spending is at risk. This week’s updates include personal income and outlays and consumer sentiment.

Gold futures trade December 13, 2012 - Gartley pattern on 4 hour chart

Silver trade December 11, 2012 - AB = CD pattern

Looking Ahead: December 10 through December 14, 2012

Five central banks met but only the Reserve Bank of Australia trimmed its key interest rate. The European Central Bank lowered its economic growth forecast. Economic data globally were mixed. Employment data in Australia, Canada and the U.S. surprised on the up side. Meanwhile the U.S. budget negotiations continued. The Federal Reserve will meet this week and update its economic forecasts. Elsewhere, flash Markit December manufacturing PMIs are scheduled. In Japan, revised third quarter GDP and the fourth quarter Tankan are among its key data releases. And as the end of the year approaches, the negotiations in Washington will continue to get heightened scrutiny.

Gold futures trade Dec 05 2012

Looking Ahead: December 3 through December 7, 2012

Economic data were mixed. While Japan’s data were better than expected, those in Europe painted a recessionary picture. Unemployment in the Eurozone and Germany climbed but economic sentiment appeared to level off, albeit under the 50 breakeven point. U.S. data were distorted by superstorm Sandy, especially jobless claims and personal income and spending. In any event, investors gave data little notice and instead hung on every word of those taking part in the fiscal cliff negotiations. The first week of the month is always a busy one. The Reserve Bank of Australia, European Central Bank and the Banks of Canada and England will hold their policy meetings. Key manufacturing PMI data for major countries will be released along with PMIs for the services sector.