Sell GPB/USD March 12, 2012

Sell GBP/USD
Entry: 1.56810
Stop loss: 1.5707
Take profit: 1.5619
Result: $-480.62

Didn't follow my edge today and this one got me. Should of traded the resistance on the down trend line. Its alight since its only a small loss. We will live to fight another day.

No trading tonight - no setups - Jobless claims coming for GBP/USD

U.K. jobless claims are projected to increase another 5.0K in February and the ongoing weakness in the labor market may instill a bearish forecast for the British Pound as the fundamental outlook for the region remains clouded with high uncertainty. As the Bank of England keeps the door open to expand monetary policy further, a dismal labor report could spur speculation for more quantitative easing, but it seems as though the Monetary Policy Committee will preserve a wait-and-see approach throughout the first-half of the year as central bank officials expect to see a stronger recovery in 2012.

We will sit on our hands tonight and see how the UK jobless claim comes out. Plus no setups means no trades.

Market Reflections March 13, 2012

Very strong retail sales data and an upgrade of the economy by the Fed triggered a break out for the Dow which, in what may prove to be a pivotal day for the market, surged past 13,000 with a 1.7 percent gain to 13,177. This is the highest close of the recovery.

But the news isn't all bullish. Though no surprise, the Fed is not expanding QE3 and given the approach of the presidential election, the Fed may well be on hold for the rest of the year. Demand for Treasuries fell with rates rising sharply including a 9 basis point jump for the 10-year yield to 2.13 percent. Lack of new stimulus and rising rates are not good for gold which fell $30 to $1,670. Rising rates are good for the dollar firmed more than 1/2 percent against the euro and nearly 1 percent against the yen.

US Retail Sales Ahead of FOMC Decision Should Not Be Overlooked

FOMC to leave policy on hold; will be watching data closely
Retail sales to take on added significance as far as monetary policy concerned
Euro locked in choppy directionless trade
Bank of Japan leaves policy on hold as widely expected

Although the key event risk for the day comes in the form of the FOMC rate decision, the big market mover might in fact come a little earlier when US retail sales are released. At the end of the day, the Fed is not expected to do anything at all at today’s meeting and it would probably be in their best interest to leave its outlook as is. Right now the Fed is in a position where it needs to start to consider the possibility of signaling an earlier reversal of monetary policy than had been anticipated given the better than expected improvement in the US economy. However, it is still probably too early to make any material changes and a wait and see approach is most likely the best course of action for the time being. At the same time, this does make today’s retail sales data all the more interesting, with any signs of strength out of the numbers to do a good job of reaffirming the likelihood for a near-term shift in the outlook of the Fed and a transition to a less dovish policy.
For now, the Euro has been very well supported on dips below 1.3100 and remains locked in some choppy directionless trade. Ultimately, a break back below 1.2975 or above 1.3300 will be required for clearer short-term directional bias. Elsewhere, the Yen has found some renewed bids on Tuesday after declining over the past several days, with USD/JPY attempting to correct back below 82.00. While there appears to be a very clear medium and longer-term shift in the structure which favors significant USD/JPY upside over the coming weeks and months, short-term studies are stretched and show room for an initial pullback towards 80.00 before a resumption of gains. The Bank of Japan has left policy on hold as was widely expected, while announcing no new monetary easing measures. The central bank did however enhance a credit facility designed to encourage lending to growth industries.

Long EUR/USD March 12 2012 Monday

Today we got stopped out of a EUR/USD trade. We saw price action move above all moving averages, price consolidation, and a variation of the cup and handle pattern. I moved to break even after 23 pips. Unfortnately we got stopped out at break even. No major loss here. We will wait for next day's price action. Wait for you setup patiently and you will be rewarded.

Entry: 1.31603
Stop loss: 1.31319
Target profit: 1.32157
Result: Break even, no profit or loss

Trading results Feb.26.12 to Mar.02.12

Trade 1 $1538
Trade 2 $462

Total profit: $2001
Total trades: 2
Winners total: $2001
Losers total: $0
Winning percentage: 100%
Risk to reward ratio: 0

Keep a Trading Journal!

MAKE A DIARY OF YOUR TRADES to keep a written on-going track record of your progress. I cannot tell you guys with enough emphasis how important your trading journal track-record is, except to say that if you don’t keep a trading journal or at least regularly analyze your trading history and equity curve, you are extremely unlikely to ever make consistent money in the markets.
The actual process of updating your forex trading journal will help you stay disciplined and organized. This is part of developing the positive trading habits that are so crucial to becoming a long-term profitable trader. I don’t care if you think updating your journal is boring right now, stop complaining and start doing the things that YOU KNOW you need to do to become successful. I can promise you that if you keep screwing around by being unorganized and half-assing it, you are never going to pull the sort of money from the market that you want. You NEED to look at your track record on a regular basis to see something tangible that reflects back to you your ability or inability to trade This will work to keep you on top of your game.