Looking Ahead: November 12 through November 16, 2012

The U.S. reelected Barack Obama to serve a second four year term as President. The financial markets immediately shifted attention to the fiscal cliff and its potentially dire consequences for the U.S. economy unless Congress and the White House can resolve the crisis before the end of this year. The Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of England and the European Central Bank met and decided to leave their respective monetary policies unchanged. While U.S. economic data mostly beat expectations, data in Japan and Europe did not. China’s slew of October data showed a steadying economy. In the upcoming week, Japan along with the Eurozone countries release their first estimates of third quarter gross domestic product. However, investors will most likely be focused on both the European negotiations with Greece and fiscal cliff deliberations in the U.S.

Looking Ahead: November 5 through November 9, 2012

Hurricane Sandy captured investors’ attention as the week began and forced New York markets to close for Monday and Tuesday. Despite the difficulties on the U.S. East Coast economic data were released in a timely manner — and they were mostly positive. However, that cannot be said about European data that showed unemployment continuing to grow while manufacturing continued to contract. In Japan, the Bank of Japan found it necessary to increase its asset purchase program. The Japanese government continued to apply pressure on the BoJ, threatening its independence. The big event this week is the U.S. presidential election on Tuesday. Investors are already looking past the election and to the resolution of the ‘fiscal cliff’ at year’s end. Three central banks meet — the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank. China’s monthly deluge of economic data is due along with global services and composite purchasing managers’ indexes. But the outcome of the election and its ramifications will occupy investors.

Long EUR/SGD

Long EUR/SGD Entry: 1.58295 Stop loss: 1.57892 Target: 1.59521

Looking Ahead: October 29 through November 2, 2012

Equities were lower last week on mixed economic data and disappointing earnings reports. Unease about the European debt situation continued to make investors wary. The Federal Reserve, Bank of Canada and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand chose to leave their monetary policies unchanged. Both UK and U.S. first estimates of third quarter GDP were better than expected. Flash PMIs however, showed continued contraction everywhere but in the U.S. The Bank of Japan meets Tuesday and is expected to add to its asset purchase program. The week is a busy one with key economic data on tap globally along with a continuing onslaught of earnings reports. Among the important data to be released are final manufacturing PMIs globally, Japan’s monthly deluge of new economic data and in the U.S. a slew of reports culminating in the employment situation report on Friday.

Looking Ahead: October 22 through October 26, 2012

China’s slew of economic data was in traders’ focus during the market week. Investors also awaited developments from the EU summit which took place on Thursday and Friday. U.S. data provided the usual mixed bag but were generally positive, especially on housing.

This week, traders will focus on the FOMC meeting announcement. Also on tap are the Bank of Canada and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand policy decisions. The data highlight of the week will be the sundry flash PMI indexes from Europe and the U.S. The UK will provide its first estimate of third quarter gross domestic product.

 

 

Looking Ahead: October 15 through October 19, 2012

Key data are on tap this week including the German October ZEW survey along with the UK’s labour market report, consumer prices and retail sales. But focus will be on the latest data deluge from China for the month of September and for the third quarter as well. Both the Bank of England and the Reserve Bank of Australia will release minutes of their respective October meetings. The minutes from the BoE will provide some sense from the policy debate earlier this month on how likely the MPC is to expand its asset purchase program at its next scheduled meeting on November 8th. From the RBA, analysts will be looking for more information on why the Bank cut its policy rate a month sooner than was generally expected and will be looking for clues on whether there will be another quarter point cut before yearend.

Looking Ahead: Week of October 8 through 12

The first major release is midweek with the Beige Book. The Fed is focusing on the labor market and comments on that sector will be highlighted. The next major mover is international trade with the export component the key focus as growth has been wavering in Asia and Europe. Bond traders will pay special attention to the producer price report as headline inflation has bounced in recent months on volatile energy costs. Finally, we get a reading on consumer sentiment for early October. Various surveys recently have indicated modest improvement in the mood of the consumer.