We are traders and masters of risk. When you become pro you stop over analysing and all you do is sit there, and wait, and wait, and wait some more until you find the perfect trade. What I am saying is that the market makes all the decisions. Our only decision is to listen, feel, and respond to the market’s siren. Always and without exception. Remember, the market never lies. It is only we who lie to ourselves.
Monday, December 17, 2012
Looking Ahead: Week of December 17 through 21
The economy is bumping along on a low but positive trajectory. The consumer sector somehow keeps showing more life than you might expect. Manufacturing is sluggish but not negative. And the Fed has been extremely creative in keeping rates low and liquidity in the financial markets. Still, resolution of the fiscal cliff is needed—preferably by Christmas but many would be happy to merely beat the January 1 deadline.
Upcoming news is loaded with data on manufacturing, housing, and the consumer. Hurricane Sandy has caused sharp down and up swings in production numbers but net still soft. So, regional Fed manufacturing news from New York, Philadelphia, and Kansas City will garner attention. Housing has been on a moderate uptrend and traders want to see housing keep the recovery going. Updates are posted for housing starts and permits, and existing home sales. The consumer sector recently has been mixed with spending moderately healthy but sentiment dropping, suggesting spending is at risk. This week’s updates include personal income and outlays and consumer sentiment.
Thursday, December 13, 2012
Tuesday, December 11, 2012
Sunday, December 9, 2012
Looking Ahead: December 10 through December 14, 2012
Five central banks met but only the Reserve Bank of Australia trimmed its key interest rate. The European Central Bank lowered its economic growth forecast. Economic data globally were mixed. Employment data in Australia, Canada and the U.S. surprised on the up side. Meanwhile the U.S. budget negotiations continued.
The Federal Reserve will meet this week and update its economic forecasts. Elsewhere, flash Markit December manufacturing PMIs are scheduled. In Japan, revised third quarter GDP and the fourth quarter Tankan are among its key data releases. And as the end of the year approaches, the negotiations in Washington will continue to get heightened scrutiny.
Wednesday, December 5, 2012
Sunday, December 2, 2012
Looking Ahead: December 3 through December 7, 2012
Economic data were mixed. While Japan’s data were better than expected, those in Europe painted a recessionary picture. Unemployment in the Eurozone and Germany climbed but economic sentiment appeared to level off, albeit under the 50 breakeven point. U.S. data were distorted by superstorm Sandy, especially jobless claims and personal income and spending. In any event, investors gave data little notice and instead hung on every word of those taking part in the fiscal cliff negotiations.
The first week of the month is always a busy one. The Reserve Bank of Australia, European Central Bank and the Banks of Canada and England will hold their policy meetings. Key manufacturing PMI data for major countries will be released along with PMIs for the services sector.
Monday, November 26, 2012
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