Looking Ahead: August 5 through August 9, 2013

Four central banks met and left their respective monetary policies unchanged. Economic data were mixed. New data from Europe indicated that the economies there are beginning to stabilize. In Japan, the data including industrial output, manufacturing PMI and retail and household spending were negative. In the U.S. results were mixed as well, with the employment report disappointing while indicators of manufacturing activity picked up.

 

After last week, the coming week almost seems peaceful. The Reserve Bank of Australia meets as does the Bank of Japan. The betting is that the RBA will lower its policy interest rate while the BoJ will sit tight. Also on the calendar are the monthly deluge of July data from China and a slew of service and composite PMIs

Looking Ahead: July 29 through August 2, 2013

Although the economic calendar was light — unlike the upcoming two weeks — the data showed that things were improving somewhat in the Eurozone and the UK but deteriorating in China. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand decided to keep its OCR at 2.5 percent for the rest of the year but would consider raising it later to combat expected inflationary pressures from the rebuilding of Canterbury after its devastating earthquake in March 2011. The Federal Reserve, Bank of England and the European Central Bank meet this week. And while none are expected to change their current policy interest rates or bond buying schemes, changes in the nuanced wording in their statements will have bank watchers parsing them very carefully. Among the plethora of new economic information, July purchasing managers indexes will indicate the health — or not — of that sector. Japan’s key data are on tap at the beginning of the week while the week climaxes to a close on Friday with the U.S. employment situation report. And there are many key reports in between to keep market players alert.

Looking Ahead: July 15 through July 19, 2013

The Bank of Japan left its key monetary policies unchanged and used the word ‘recover’ for the first time since January 2011. Investors focused on the FOMC minutes and Chairman Ben Bernanke’s remarks on Wednesday. They combined to send the U.S. dollar down and equities up. The Bank of Canada meets for the first time under its new governor, Steven Poloz. Minutes from the Bank of England’s meeting earlier this month also are expected. China releases its June industrial production and retail sales numbers along with the highly anticipated estimate of first quarter growth. Elsewhere, the UK posts producer and consumer price data along with retail sales and its labour market report for June.

Trading one currency pair

Looking Ahead: July 1 through July 5, 2013

Equities stabilized and mostly gained in the last week of the month and quarter. However, the gains could not offset the selloff that occurred earlier in the month. Most indexes were down for the month of June and the quarter. The coming week features the usual first week of the month central bank meetings — the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Bank of England, and the European Central Bank. No policy changes are expected. For the BoE, it will be the inaugural meeting for its new governor and former Bank of Canada governor, Mark Carney. Also featured are the various PMI indexes. In Japan, the closely watched Tankan survey will be carefully studied for any positive effects of Abenomics and the Bank Japan’s stimulus program. And in the U.S., the employment situation report will be released on Friday.

Looking Ahead: May 20 through May 24, 2013

Economic data mostly disappointed last week — Europe remained in the grips of recession and in the U.S., data were weaker than expected. However, Japan grew more than expected in the first quarter after an upwardly revised fourth quarter. Inflation in Canada, the Eurozone and the U.S. was muted thanks in part to declining gasoline prices. The Bank of Japan meets this week but no major policy moves are anticipated. Flash PMIs for May are on tap for the U.S., the Eurozone, Germany and France. On Wednesday, the Eurozone will hold a summit — no major initiatives are expected.

Looking Ahead: May 13 through May 17, 2013

Equities continued to advance last week while central banks including the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Korea reduced interest rates to spur on their respective economies and at the same time lower their currencies to reduce the pain for their export industries. The U.S. dollar exhibited strength against all of its major counterparts. The Japanese yen crashed through the 100 yen to a dollar barrier and continued to slide. First estimates of first quarter growth will be released for Japan, the Eurozone and many of its member states. Investors will continue to keep an eye on currency moves especially with the U.S. dollar.