Looking Ahead: August 26 through August 30, 2013

Equities mostly declined last week as investors worried about what would be said in the FOMC minutes. Mostly favorable economic data in the industrial countries helped to neutralize the impact of the minutes. Growth in both Germany and the UK picked up in the second quarter — certainly good news. Further, flash PMI readings tended to substantiate growth going forward and not just for Germany and the UK. China’s PMI surprised in edged over the breakeven point with a reading of 50.1 indicating that manufacturing is stabilizing — certainly good news to supplier countries. The last week of summer is already here! As always, the last week of the month is a busy one with new economic data from Europe and the usual slew of releases from Japan. Investors will shift their attention to FedSpeak as they gear up for the FOMC September meeting.

Looking Ahead: August 19 through August 23, 2013

Investors continue to be obsessed with the Federal Reserve’s next move and in the process could be ignoring mitigating information that could delay any cut back in stimulus. Most equity indexes advanced on the week except those in the U.S. The last two weeks of August are typically slow with light trading. Data releases in Europe are typically deferred during this time as well. Investors will wait for September before making any dramatic moves, ceteris paribus.

Is this the bottom of Gold August 2013?

Looking Ahead: August 12 through August 16, 2013

The news once again, revolved around central bank activities. Economic data were mostly positive in the UK and in China but mixed in Canada. Investors continued to focus on the Federal Reserve and when it will begin to taper bond purchases.

 

There are no major central bank meetings scheduled for this week and the Bank of Japan and Bank of England meeting minutes are expected to give little illumination to policy going forward. It is vacation time in Europe and things will quiet. The major event will be the release of flash estimates of GDP for Eurozone members. Japan will also release its first estimate of second quarter GDP.

Looking Ahead: August 5 through August 9, 2013

Four central banks met and left their respective monetary policies unchanged. Economic data were mixed. New data from Europe indicated that the economies there are beginning to stabilize. In Japan, the data including industrial output, manufacturing PMI and retail and household spending were negative. In the U.S. results were mixed as well, with the employment report disappointing while indicators of manufacturing activity picked up.

 

After last week, the coming week almost seems peaceful. The Reserve Bank of Australia meets as does the Bank of Japan. The betting is that the RBA will lower its policy interest rate while the BoJ will sit tight. Also on the calendar are the monthly deluge of July data from China and a slew of service and composite PMIs

Looking Ahead: July 29 through August 2, 2013

Although the economic calendar was light — unlike the upcoming two weeks — the data showed that things were improving somewhat in the Eurozone and the UK but deteriorating in China. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand decided to keep its OCR at 2.5 percent for the rest of the year but would consider raising it later to combat expected inflationary pressures from the rebuilding of Canterbury after its devastating earthquake in March 2011. The Federal Reserve, Bank of England and the European Central Bank meet this week. And while none are expected to change their current policy interest rates or bond buying schemes, changes in the nuanced wording in their statements will have bank watchers parsing them very carefully. Among the plethora of new economic information, July purchasing managers indexes will indicate the health — or not — of that sector. Japan’s key data are on tap at the beginning of the week while the week climaxes to a close on Friday with the U.S. employment situation report. And there are many key reports in between to keep market players alert.

Looking Ahead: July 15 through July 19, 2013

The Bank of Japan left its key monetary policies unchanged and used the word ‘recover’ for the first time since January 2011. Investors focused on the FOMC minutes and Chairman Ben Bernanke’s remarks on Wednesday. They combined to send the U.S. dollar down and equities up. The Bank of Canada meets for the first time under its new governor, Steven Poloz. Minutes from the Bank of England’s meeting earlier this month also are expected. China releases its June industrial production and retail sales numbers along with the highly anticipated estimate of first quarter growth. Elsewhere, the UK posts producer and consumer price data along with retail sales and its labour market report for June.