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Wednesday, March 7, 2012

Ultimate Goal!


My goal in trading is to execute my plan perfectly. If I cannot find my edge or if I don't know what my edge is I am just gambling. Some days there are many opportunities and some days there are only 1 or 2 opportunities. Some days are just sitting on my hands.

Kevin

Avoid the Trading Seesaw!

Have you ever experienced a performance seesaw? Trading seesaw is the cycle of successfully making money for a certain period of time, and then becoming overconfident and careless, which then leads to bad losses.

The "seesaw" is completed when the trader tries to get back "in the zone" by making the necessary effort to execute trades well.

Unlike a kid getting out of simple seesaw though, getting off the trading seesaw can be extremely difficult.

When you are "up" and are winning trades, you easily become wrapped up in your trading results. Your string of winning trades can make you overconfident, which can tempt you to start cutting corners and stop doing the processes that initially made you win.

Once you have reached a very high level of success, you'll probably fall back down to earth on your behind due to mistakes and maybe even a big loss. It is only in this "down" stage that you realize your mistakes and return to what you were doing previously that made you profitable.

Take this trader friend of mine named Rob (not his real name, of course). He has been live-trading for around 2 years, yet he has to end a year with a significant profit. During the first year, he was up by 0.50%. On his second year, he was down 0.25%. Needless to say, his performance has been less than stellar.

When I looked at his month-to-month performance, however, I saw that he would have 3 to 4-month winning streaks where he'd gain around 5% to 7%, followed up by 2 to 3 months of 6% to 10% losses.

This prompted me to ask him if he found something odd in his performance.

His response was surprising. He simply said that it was just how the cookie crumbled-sometimes he'd win, sometimes he'd lose. But I did not see it that way. I realized that he was stuck in a performance seesaw.

If you think you're experiencing the same scenario I stated above, don't fret.

One thing you can do to avoid the trading seesaw is to focus on the process. Some traders continually check their trading and psychological journals for signs that they might be deviating from their usual strategies. Others even score themselves on each trade to make sure their trading plans are being followed.

Another way to avoid the trading seesaw is to make sure that trading isn't your only measure of your self-worth. Try to find a sense of achievement and satisfaction in your relationships, work, and other hobbies that you might have. This way your ego won't be tied to your trading performance and you'll be more emotionally resilient in winning and losing trades.

As I said last week, trading is a grind where focusing on the process is your best friend. Having winning or losing streaks shouldn't hinder you from doing what works and improving what doesn't work for your trades.

It takes effort, emotional resilience, and most of all, FOCUS, in order to avoid the trading seasaw and become a consistently profitable trader over time.



Read more: http://www.babypips.com/blogs/pipsychology/avoid-the-trading-seesaw.html#ixzz1oQLrSgnw

Wednesday Could Be Day of Consolidation With Key Event Risk Ahead


After a huge sell off markets are moving sideways. ADP's Non-Farm payroll estimate will take the morning's focus, but watch near day's end for consumer credit which has been pivoting much higher in recent months. We will watch from the sideways and wait for market direction.

Trade EUR/USD March 6, 2012 Tuesday


Short EUR/USD using crossover system on 1 hour charts. Gain 62 pips.
Entry: 1.32048
Stop loss: 1.3222
Units: 250000
Target Profit: 1.31432
Result: $1538.86

Friday, March 2, 2012

How risk reward always works in your favor!


Here are results from my trading from Feb 26, 2012 to March 02, 2012.

Trade 1: $1002
Trade 2: -$542
Trade 3: -$971
Trade 4: $2920
Trade 5: $225
Trade 6: $842

Total 6 trades
4 winners and 2 losers, 4/6=67% winning percentage
Lost total $613
Win total $4989
Risk to reward 1:8
Overall total $3476

Monday, February 27, 2012

The 22 Rules of Trading

1. Never, under any circumstance add to a losing position.... ever! Nothing more need be said; to do otherwise will eventually and absolutely lead to ruin!

2. Trade like a mercenary guerrilla. We must fight on the winning side and be willing to change sides readily when one side has gained the upper hand.

3. Capital comes in two varieties: Mental and that which is in your pocket or account. Of the two types of capital, the mental is the more important and expensive of the two. Holding to losing positions costs measurable sums of actual capital, but it costs immeasurable sums of mental capital.

4. The objective is not to buy low and sell high, but to buy high and to sell higher. We can never know what price is "low." Nor can we know what price is "high." Always remember that sugar once fell from $1.25/lb to 2 cent/lb and seemed "cheap" many times along the way.

5. In bull markets we can only be long or neutral, and in bear markets we can only be short or neutral. That may seem self-evident; it is not, and it is a lesson learned too late by far too many.

6. "Markets can remain illogical longer than you or I can remain solvent," according to our good friend, Dr. A. Gary Shilling. Illogic often reigns and markets are enormously inefficient despite what the academics believe.

7. Sell markets that show the greatest weakness, and buy those that show the greatest strength. Metaphorically, when bearish, throw your rocks into the wettest paper sack, for they break most readily. In bull markets, we need to ride upon the strongest winds... they shall carry us higher than shall lesser ones.

8. Try to trade the first day of a gap, for gaps usually indicate violent new action. We have come to respect "gaps" in our nearly thirty years of watching markets; when they happen (especially in stocks) they are usually very important.

9. Trading runs in cycles: some good; most bad. Trade large and aggressively when trading well; trade small and modestly when trading poorly. In "good times," even errors are profitable; in "bad times" even the most well researched trades go awry. This is the nature of trading; accept it.

10. To trade successfully, think like a fundamentalist; trade like a technician. It is imperative that we understand the fundamentals driving a trade, but also that we understand the market's technicals. When we do, then, and only then, can we or should we, trade.

11. Respect "outside reversals" after extended bull or bear runs. Reversal days on the charts signal the final exhaustion of the bullish or bearish forces that drove the market previously. Respect them, and respect even more "weekly" and "monthly," reversals.

12. Keep your technical systems simple. Complicated systems breed confusion; simplicity breeds elegance.

13. Respect and embrace the very normal 50-62% retracements that take prices back to major trends. If a trade is missed, wait patiently for the market to retrace. Far more often than not, retracements happen... just as we are about to give up hope that they shall not.

14. An understanding of mass psychology is often more important than an understanding of economics. Markets are driven by human beings making human errors and also making super-human insights.

15. Establish initial positions on strength in bull markets and on weakness in bear markets. The first "addition" should also be added on strength as the market shows the trend to be working. Henceforth, subsequent additions are to be added on retracements.

16. Bear markets are more violent than are bull markets and so also are their retracements.

17. Be patient with winning trades; be enormously impatient with losing trades. Remember it is quite possible to make large sums trading/investing if we are "right" only 30% of the time, as long as our losses are small and our profits are large.

18. The market is the sum total of the wisdom ... and the ignorance...of all of those who deal in it; and we dare not argue with the market's wisdom. If we learn nothing more than this we've learned much indeed.

19. Do more of that which is working and less of that which is not: If a market is strong, buy more; if a market is weak, sell more. New highs are to be bought; new lows sold.

20. The hard trade is the right trade: If it is easy to sell, don't; and if it is easy to buy, don't. Do the trade that is hard to do and that which the crowd finds objectionable. Peter Steidelmeyer taught us this twenty five years ago and it holds truer now than then.

21. There is never one cockroach! This is the "winning" new rule submitted by our friend, Tom Powell.

22. All rules are meant to be broken: The trick is knowing when... and how infrequently this rule may be invoked!

Exerpt by Dennis Gartman

http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/rules.html

Wednesday, February 22, 2012

Or we trending or consolidating?


Figuring out what kind of direction we are in the market is very important to become a successful trader. In my past years I would trade against the trend. Remember the trend is your friend. If you can follow this simply rule you will have much higher probable winning trades. Now that is much easier said than done. For example the last few weeks on the AUD/USD we have been going sideways. Trying to trade this using trends wouldn't work. In the chart you will find we are bouncing between 1.08167 and 1.06450. After you decide what kinda of market we are in you can beginning applying the best system suited for that market. I have several methods to trade the different types of markets. Remember like a handyman you need to learn what the market is doing and then use the correct tools to decipher the market. You would never use a hammer on glass would you? Most new traders try to fit their tools onto the market to see which one fits and have no idea what they are using. The master trader rather use their knowledge and experience and decides which tool is the best. They have mastered their trading tools.