Looking Ahead: Week of July 23 through 27

For the big event on Friday, investors nerves will be tested as they await to see if Q2 GDP tops or falls short of the Q1 sluggish pace. But earlier there will be updates on manufacturing and housing. Whether manufacturing has softened will be updated with the Markit flash PMI, Richmond Fed, durables orders, and Kansas City reports. Housing news includes FHFA house price index, new home sales, and pending existing home sales.

Looking Ahead: Week of July 16 through 20

The bottom line
The recovery continues with modest forward momentum. International trade is expanding but at a slower pace than some months ago. The consumer sector is still positive but also less robust than earlier in the recovery. Inflation is not a threat except at the dinner table. The Fed still has plenty of room to maneuver but many on the FOMC are skeptical, doubting that additional policy moves would do much good and, in the worst case, would create inflation risks down the road.
Looking Ahead
Week of July 16 through 20 Investors will be on heightened alert given the many market movers slated to hit the wires. The updates include consumer, housing and production data including retail sales, housing starts and existing home sales. Regional manufacturing data from the Empire State and Philadelphia Fed plus national industrial output data will update the manufacturing outlook. Additional hints—or not—on QE3 could come via the Fed’s Beige Book on Wednesday.

Looking Ahead: Week of July 9 through 13

The bottom line Clearly, stronger jobs growth is needed to bolster to the recovery and the economy’s rate of growth. Nonetheless, there has been some improvement recently in housing and manufacturing may not be as sluggish as feared. Consumers are still spending (at least those with jobs). So, the economy is muddling along at a modest growth rate and could pick up strength—especially if the fiscal cliff issue is addressed. However, that issue likely will not be resolved until the last minute. Looking Ahead: Week of July 9 through 13 After Friday’s soft employment report, this week’s highlight may be the Fed’s FOMC minutes (Wednesday) as traders look for any inclination of QE3. Earlier that morning, the trade deficit will add detail to foreign and domestic demand. Lower oil prices may show up in import prices (Thursday) and in the PPI (Friday). Friday’s consumer sentiment reading will indicate whether lower gasoline prices are offsetting weak job growth.

Looking Ahead: Week of July 2 through 6

The bottom line The latest indicators were mixed with the biggest positives coming from housing. The consumer sector was very sluggish—mostly tied to modest employment growth and special factors on spending. And consumer sentiment slipped. Manufacturing is mixed to net positive but is not seeing the strength it did many months ago. Overall, the recovery is improving but at a low trajectory and slower than hoped. Should this past week’s progress in Europe turn out to be real, that likely will boost global confidence and growth. But as a caveat, we’ve been there before. Looking Ahead: Week of July 2 through 6 Other than Independence Day at mid-week, the highlight is Friday’s employment report which needs to show improvement after the near flat increase in payrolls last month. Consumer spending slowed in May, giving motor vehicle sales (Tuesday) increased importance. After recently mixed regional Fed surveys, traders will look for a stronger ISM manufacturing number (Monday).

Trading Psychology and Discipline

Here is a great video on Psychology and Discipline.

Looking Ahead: Week of June 25 through 29

Is housing improving? Housing updates continue with pending and new home sales and Case-Shiller. Recent reports on manufacturing have been mixed. Clarification could come from the regional Dallas, Richmond, and Kansas City Feds, as well as the durables orders report. Consumer spending has slowed and this week’s consumer confidence and sentiment numbers could clarify where spending is headed. Also honing in on the consumer will be the personal income report. Also, the Supreme Court could rule on so-called “Obama Care” as soon as Monday as the Court wraps up its current session. This could impact the health care provider sector.

Looking Ahead: Week of June 17 through 22

Looking Ahead: Week of June 18 through 22 

The Bank of Japan, Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the Swiss National Bank left their respective monetary policies unchanged. However, all referred to the situation in Europe in their post meeting statement and reiterated their preparedness to act should it be necessary. US economic data disappointed for the most part. However, investors looked upon it as more reasons that the Federal Reserve will add stimulus to boost flagging growth when it meets on June 19^th and 20^th.

In Athens, the election was seen as too close to call. Alexis Tsipras, leader of the main anti-bailout leftist party SYRIZA, said on Thursday the deal with Greece's international lenders, which has helped push the economy into a depression, would not last beyond the weekend. SYRIZA is running neck-and-neck with the mainstream conservatives for Sunday's parliamentary vote, a re-run of an election last month that produced a stalemate in which neither the pro nor anti bailout camps was able to form a coalition. European leaders, however, have warned that Greece will get no help if it reneges. Officials have also hinted that Athens might be granted more time to achieve its fiscal targets if a new government sticks to the core reforms in the program.

Economic news was more on the negative side this past week.  Still, momentum is on the positive side but sluggish.  The big issue in the near term is whether Greek elections favor pro-euro candidates or not.  The outcome will likely impact financial markets more than real activity in the U.S.

Highlights are the highly anticipated Wednesday FOMC statement, FOMC forecasts, and chairman’s press conference. Traders expect at least some modest additional accommodation.  But housing gets second billing with the NAHB housing index on Monday and housing starts the next day and existing home sales and FHFA house prices on Thursday.