Markets have been mostly locked in some choppy consolidation following Tuesday’s sharp risk sell-off and things could continue in this manner at least until the latter half of the day where a number of major events could finally break the range trade and open a good deal of renewed volatility. The Bank of England, European Central Bank and Bank of Canada are all set to decide on rates and although none of the central banks are expected to change policy (0.5%, 1.0% and 1.0% respectively), market participants will be looking for any signs of added dovishness given the ongoing stresses in the global economy. Perhaps more importantly however, will be the Greek PSI deadline at 20:00GMT. Many now fear that the collective action clauses (CAC) could be triggered, which would force bondholders to agree to haircuts. With the participation rate only at 58%, well short of the 75% required, all eyes are fixated on ISDA to see if they deem this to be a credit event.
We made a one trade on Wednesday night. We will sit on the sidelines now. One trade a day is enough.
We are traders and masters of risk. When you become pro you stop over analysing and all you do is sit there, and wait, and wait, and wait some more until you find the perfect trade. What I am saying is that the market makes all the decisions. Our only decision is to listen, feel, and respond to the market’s siren. Always and without exception. Remember, the market never lies. It is only we who lie to ourselves.
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