We are traders and masters of risk. When you become pro you stop over analysing and all you do is sit there, and wait, and wait, and wait some more until you find the perfect trade. What I am saying is that the market makes all the decisions. Our only decision is to listen, feel, and respond to the market’s siren. Always and without exception. Remember, the market never lies. It is only we who lie to ourselves.
Wednesday, October 31, 2012
Sunday, October 28, 2012
Looking Ahead: October 29 through November 2, 2012
Equities were lower last week on mixed economic data and disappointing earnings reports. Unease about the European debt situation continued to make investors wary. The Federal Reserve, Bank of Canada and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand chose to leave their monetary policies unchanged. Both UK and U.S. first estimates of third quarter GDP were better than expected. Flash PMIs however, showed continued contraction everywhere but in the U.S.
The Bank of Japan meets Tuesday and is expected to add to its asset purchase program. The week is a busy one with key economic data on tap globally along with a continuing onslaught of earnings reports. Among the important data to be released are final manufacturing PMIs globally, Japan’s monthly deluge of new economic data and in the U.S. a slew of reports culminating in the employment situation report on Friday.
Sunday, October 21, 2012
Looking Ahead: October 22 through October 26, 2012
China’s slew of economic data was in traders’ focus during the market week. Investors also awaited developments from the EU summit which took place on Thursday and Friday. U.S. data provided the usual mixed bag but were generally positive, especially on housing.
This week, traders will focus on the FOMC meeting announcement. Also on tap are the Bank of Canada and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand policy decisions. The data highlight of the week will be the sundry flash PMI indexes from Europe and the U.S. The UK will provide its first estimate of third quarter gross domestic product.
Monday, October 15, 2012
Looking Ahead: October 15 through October 19, 2012
Key data are on tap this week including the German October ZEW survey along with the UK’s labour market report, consumer prices and retail sales. But focus will be on the latest data deluge from China for the month of September and for the third quarter as well. Both the Bank of England and the Reserve Bank of Australia will release minutes of their respective October meetings. The minutes from the BoE will provide some sense from the policy debate earlier this month on how likely the MPC is to expand its asset purchase program at its next scheduled meeting on November 8th. From the RBA, analysts will be looking for more information on why the Bank cut its policy rate a month sooner than was generally expected and will be looking for clues on whether there will be another quarter point cut before yearend.
Sunday, October 7, 2012
Looking Ahead: Week of October 8 through 12
The first major release is midweek with the Beige Book. The Fed is focusing on the labor market and comments on that sector will be highlighted. The next major mover is international trade with the export component the key focus as growth has been wavering in Asia and Europe. Bond traders will pay special attention to the producer price report as headline inflation has bounced in recent months on volatile energy costs. Finally, we get a reading on consumer sentiment for early October. Various surveys recently have indicated modest improvement in the mood of the consumer.
Monday, October 1, 2012
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