We are traders and masters of risk. When you become pro you stop over analysing and all you do is sit there, and wait, and wait, and wait some more until you find the perfect trade. What I am saying is that the market makes all the decisions. Our only decision is to listen, feel, and respond to the market’s siren. Always and without exception. Remember, the market never lies. It is only we who lie to ourselves.
Friday, December 27, 2013
Sunday, December 22, 2013
Sunday, December 15, 2013
Wednesday, December 11, 2013
Sunday, December 8, 2013
Saturday, December 7, 2013
Friday, December 6, 2013
Wednesday, December 4, 2013
Tuesday, December 3, 2013
Sunday, December 1, 2013
Friday, November 29, 2013
Basektball scoring average versus risk and reward
This morning something struck my mind! I am a huge basketball fan. I am the kind of guy who's into numbers and analytics. Being a huge Michael Jordan fan throughout my earlier, I've always wondered how Jordan could possible average 30 points a game. To my astonishment, I went through some NBA statistics and found out that Jordan was able to string streaks of 40 or more points per game. He even had a 63 point game! He sometimes would have 25 points a game, but he had so many 35-40 point and this helped pad his scoring average. Some Players in the NBA average 15 points a game. Players then next time get 10 points, some nights 5 points, or even 20 points. My point here is these players were never consistent in scoring. Up and down and all around goes their scoring average. What I noticed in Jordan was that he was very consistent in averaging 30 plus points a game. What made him even a better scorer was that he shot 50% from the field. That is a high percentage in the NBA. Imagine having a 50% winning average and getting like 1:3, or 1:5 risk to reward in your trading! Its no wonder Jordan was able to become one NBA's all time scoring average leader. Trading is the same formula. Risk less and reward more.
Kevin Chung
Wednesday, November 20, 2013
Tuesday, November 19, 2013
Good time to be sitting on your hands now!
The market has been very inefficient starting this week. Any swing trading setups are not following through. A lot of instruments are going sideways. However you might be able to find some trades on the lower times frames like the 5 min. However I would not advise you to trade the lower time frames if you don't have experience and good risk management.
Sunday, November 17, 2013
Thursday, November 14, 2013
Wednesday, November 13, 2013
Monday, November 11, 2013
Sunday, November 10, 2013
Monday, November 4, 2013
Wednesday, October 30, 2013
Monday, October 28, 2013
Monday, October 21, 2013
Friday, October 18, 2013
Thursday, October 17, 2013
Wednesday, October 16, 2013
Tuesday, October 15, 2013
Sunday, September 29, 2013
Looking Ahead: September 30 through October 4, 2013
Investors were cautious last week as they monitored the ongoing battles in Washington DC over the budget for the new fiscal year beginning October 1st and raising of the debt ceiling which needs to be done by October 17. Little attention was paid to economic data.
The Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank meet this week. Policy changes are not expected. A slew of new economic data will be released including Japan’s important Tankan report as well as manufacturing, services and composite purchasing managers’ indexes for Eurozone members, the UK, U.S., Japan and India. However, focus will continue to be on the U.S. Congress and decisions about the budget and then the debt ceiling. The repercussions of these decisions will reverberate globally.
Sunday, September 15, 2013
Looking Ahead: September 16 through September 20, 2013
Concerns about Syria were prominent during the week. As diplomatic efforts to resolve the problem began, fears receded and investor angst concerning possible Federal Reserve action kept investors on the sidelines as they waited for the FOMC announcement and the Fed chairman’s post meeting press conference. The UK continued to post better than expected economic data, this time on the labour market. China’s data showed the economy there beginning to stabilize.
The FOMC finally will announce its decision concerning the reduction of Fed stimulus this week. Also on tap, the Reserve Bank of India under its new governor Raghuram Rajan will try to find ways to stimulate the Indian economy and bring about reforms that are desperately needed. The Bank of England releases minutes from its September monetary policy board meeting. They will be parsed carefully as bank watchers look for further clarification of the Bank’s forward guidance.
Sunday, September 8, 2013
Looking Ahead: September 9 through September 13, 2013
The Reserve Bank of Australia, European Central Bank and the Banks of Canada, Japan and England refrained from changing their respective monetary policies. Economic data were mixed with August PMIs showing improvement for the most part. Investors continue to wait to see what the Federal Reserve’s next policy move will be.
The upcoming week will feature the monthly plethora of data from China including August consumer and producer prices, industrial output, merchandise trade and retail sales. Both the UK and Australia report labour market data. But investors will also be monitoring the situation in Syria and of course FedSpeak for the last clues before the pre-FOMC meeting blackout period.
Tuesday, August 27, 2013
How to trade Quiet Summer Market
The market has been very quiet and less liquid the past month. Mainly this is due to summer inactivity when most fund managers go on holiday. Having said that, if you were a swing trader these past months it has been very difficult to trade. The most difficult thing is to sit there and wait for your trading opportunity. This may take a very long time. Patience I find is a killer for new traders. One way to to offset this is to go into the shorter times frames. What I have found is that the market ebbs and flows in many different directiions. If you were to give me a chart and tell me to guess what time frame it was in, it didn't really matter to me. What really matters is how the price action trends. I've seen 5 min charts trend so well that you could make a killing in the market. Same could be said about 15 min. charts or even 1 hour charts. The only other factor is the time. Price action on the 5 min charts are faster than 1 hour charts. I truly believe when we see things in clarity, this is when our trading excels. So don't just sit there on the 4 hour charts. Learn to read lower time frames and you will see greater success.
Sunday, August 25, 2013
Looking Ahead: August 26 through August 30, 2013
Equities mostly declined last week as investors worried about what would be said in the FOMC minutes. Mostly favorable economic data in the industrial countries helped to neutralize the impact of the minutes. Growth in both Germany and the UK picked up in the second quarter — certainly good news. Further, flash PMI readings tended to substantiate growth going forward and not just for Germany and the UK. China’s PMI surprised in edged over the breakeven point with a reading of 50.1 indicating that manufacturing is stabilizing — certainly good news to supplier countries.
The last week of summer is already here! As always, the last week of the month is a busy one with new economic data from Europe and the usual slew of releases from Japan. Investors will shift their attention to FedSpeak as they gear up for the FOMC September meeting.
Sunday, August 18, 2013
Looking Ahead: August 19 through August 23, 2013
Investors continue to be obsessed with the Federal Reserve’s next move and in the process could be ignoring mitigating information that could delay any cut back in stimulus. Most equity indexes advanced on the week except those in the U.S.
The last two weeks of August are typically slow with light trading. Data releases in Europe are typically deferred during this time as well. Investors will wait for September before making any dramatic moves, ceteris paribus.
Sunday, August 11, 2013
Looking Ahead: August 12 through August 16, 2013
The news once again, revolved around central bank activities. Economic data were mostly positive in the UK and in China but mixed in Canada. Investors continued to focus on the Federal Reserve and when it will begin to taper bond purchases.
There are no major central bank meetings scheduled for this week and the Bank of Japan and Bank of England meeting minutes are expected to give little illumination to policy going forward. It is vacation time in Europe and things will quiet. The major event will be the release of flash estimates of GDP for Eurozone members. Japan will also release its first estimate of second quarter GDP.
Sunday, August 4, 2013
Looking Ahead: August 5 through August 9, 2013
Four central banks met and left their respective monetary policies unchanged. Economic data were mixed. New data from Europe indicated that the economies there are beginning to stabilize. In Japan, the data including industrial output, manufacturing PMI and retail and household spending were negative. In the U.S. results were mixed as well, with the employment report disappointing while indicators of manufacturing activity picked up.
After last week, the coming week almost seems peaceful. The Reserve Bank of Australia meets as does the Bank of Japan. The betting is that the RBA will lower its policy interest rate while the BoJ will sit tight. Also on the calendar are the monthly deluge of July data from China and a slew of service and composite PMIs
Sunday, July 28, 2013
Looking Ahead: July 29 through August 2, 2013
Although the economic calendar was light — unlike the upcoming two weeks — the data showed that things were improving somewhat in the Eurozone and the UK but deteriorating in China. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand decided to keep its OCR at 2.5 percent for the rest of the year but would consider raising it later to combat expected inflationary pressures from the rebuilding of Canterbury after its devastating earthquake in March 2011.
The Federal Reserve, Bank of England and the European Central Bank meet this week. And while none are expected to change their current policy interest rates or bond buying schemes, changes in the nuanced wording in their statements will have bank watchers parsing them very carefully. Among the plethora of new economic information, July purchasing managers indexes will indicate the health — or not — of that sector. Japan’s key data are on tap at the beginning of the week while the week climaxes to a close on Friday with the U.S. employment situation report. And there are many key reports in between to keep market players alert.
Sunday, July 14, 2013
Looking Ahead: July 15 through July 19, 2013
The Bank of Japan left its key monetary policies unchanged and used the word ‘recover’ for the first time since January 2011. Investors focused on the FOMC minutes and Chairman Ben Bernanke’s remarks on Wednesday. They combined to send the U.S. dollar down and equities up.
The Bank of Canada meets for the first time under its new governor, Steven Poloz. Minutes from the Bank of England’s meeting earlier this month also are expected. China releases its June industrial production and retail sales numbers along with the highly anticipated estimate of first quarter growth. Elsewhere, the UK posts producer and consumer price data along with retail sales and its labour market report for June.
Saturday, July 13, 2013
Saturday, July 6, 2013
Looking Ahead: July 1 through July 5, 2013
Equities stabilized and mostly gained in the last week of the month and quarter. However, the gains could not offset the selloff that occurred earlier in the month. Most indexes were down for the month of June and the quarter.
The coming week features the usual first week of the month central bank meetings — the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Bank of England, and the European Central Bank. No policy changes are expected. For the BoE, it will be the inaugural meeting for its new governor and former Bank of Canada governor, Mark Carney. Also featured are the various PMI indexes. In Japan, the closely watched Tankan survey will be carefully studied for any positive effects of Abenomics and the Bank Japan’s stimulus program. And in the U.S., the employment situation report will be released on Friday.
Sunday, May 19, 2013
Looking Ahead: May 20 through May 24, 2013
Economic data mostly disappointed last week — Europe remained in the grips of recession and in the U.S., data were weaker than expected. However, Japan grew more than expected in the first quarter after an upwardly revised fourth quarter. Inflation in Canada, the Eurozone and the U.S. was muted thanks in part to declining gasoline prices.
The Bank of Japan meets this week but no major policy moves are anticipated. Flash PMIs for May are on tap for the U.S., the Eurozone, Germany and France. On Wednesday, the Eurozone will hold a summit — no major initiatives are expected.
Sunday, May 12, 2013
Looking Ahead: May 13 through May 17, 2013
Equities continued to advance last week while central banks including the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Korea reduced interest rates to spur on their respective economies and at the same time lower their currencies to reduce the pain for their export industries. The U.S. dollar exhibited strength against all of its major counterparts. The Japanese yen crashed through the 100 yen to a dollar barrier and continued to slide.
First estimates of first quarter growth will be released for Japan, the Eurozone and many of its member states. Investors will continue to keep an eye on currency moves especially with the U.S. dollar.
Sunday, May 5, 2013
Looking Ahead: May 6 through May 10, 2013
Both the European Central Bank and the Reserve Bank of India cut their policy interest rates last week — and both disappointed investors because they did not do more. Most economic data disappointed globally with the exception of the U.S. employment situation report.
The Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of England meet. Economic data mainly consists of industrial production and merchandise trade data for March. Services PMIs in Europe will be watched to see if any part of the European economy is growing. Key labour force reports will be closely watched in Australia and Canada.
Sunday, April 21, 2013
Looking Ahead: April 22 through April 26, 2013
After an initial scare Monday afternoon and into Tuesday’s Asian trading session, the bombing at Boston’s marathon appeared to have little influence on the global financial markets. Investors sold because they were disappointed by a combination of economic and earnings data that did not meet expectations.
The calendar is heavy with market moving events next week including the all-important flash PMI indexes for China, Japan, Eurozone, Germany, France and the U.S. And the UK will release its first estimate of first quarter growth.
Sunday, April 14, 2013
Looking Ahead: April 15 through April 19, 2013
Most equities advanced last week mostly thanks to central bank largesse in Japan and the U.S. Economic data were mixed including those released in the U.S. including jobless claims and retail sales. The new week begins with China’s gross domestic product for the first quarter along with March industrial production and retail sales. Bank of England watchers will parse the minutes of its meeting held earlier this month. With a split vote in the Monetary Policy Committee, watchers will look to see if those who would like to see increased quantitative easing are winning any converts to their position.
Sunday, April 7, 2013
Looking Ahead: April 8 through April 12, 2013
Three central banks preferred to keep their respective monetary policies unchanged, but the Bank of Japan startled investors by introducing a more expansive stimulus package than most anticipated. Economic data were mostly disappointing, especially data from the Eurozone. U.S. employment data also disappointed. Perhaps employers were holding back thanks to the looming sequester than lingered throughout the month.
This week is expected to be slower and calmer than last week even with the earnings season beginning in the U.S. Most data releases revolve around industrial output and merchandise trade. China begins releasing its spate of March economic data including consumer and producer price indexes and international trade.
Sunday, March 31, 2013
Looking Ahead: April 1 through April 5, 2013
Front and center last week were the crises in Cyprus and Italy. While Cyprus agreed to a restructured bailout package, the political impasse in Italy remains with no solution in sight.
The Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of England and European Central Bank announce their respective monetary policy decisions. However, the focus will be on the Bank of Japan and the first announcement from new governor Haruhiko Kuroda. Expectations are high for aggressive moves to finally hoist the economy from its malaise and defeat the over 15 years of deflation. Elsewhere, investors will be monitoring the plethora of purchasing managers’ indexes globally but especially from China, the Eurozone and the U.S. The week draws to an end with the U.S. employment situation report.
Sunday, March 24, 2013
Looking Ahead: March 25 through March 29, 2013
The turmoil over Cyprus trumped economic news including the FOMC announcement on Wednesday. At this writing, negotiations continue in an attempt to reach a package by Monday — the day the ECB said it will stop supporting Cyprus. The Federal Reserve left its policy unchanged. Economic data for Europe disappointed but did not for the U.S.
The last week of the month brings its usual spate of new economic data especially from Japan. February unemployment, consumer prices, industrial output and consumer spending are on the calendar. It is also the last week of the first quarter of 2013 and the end of Japan’s fiscal year.
Sunday, March 17, 2013
Looking Ahead: March 18 through March 22, 2013
While economic data from the UK and Europe were weaker than expected, most U.S. data improved. The Swiss National Bank, Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the Bank of Korea left their respective monetary policies unchanged. Data from China showed that inflation picked up while increases in output and retail sales disappointed.
The data highlights for this week will be flash manufacturing PMIs from China, the Eurozone, France, Germany and the United States. The Federal Reserve holds a two day meeting to be followed by the Fed President’s quarterly press conference.
Monday, March 11, 2013
Looking Ahead: March 11 through March 15, 2013
Five of the major central banks met — all left their respective monetary policies unchanged as expected. Data were mixed but there were promising improvements in China’s exports, Japan’s GDP and U.S. employment.
Data next week focuses on merchandise trade and industrial production data for the most part. Australia’s labour force survey will be parsed carefully by equity and foreign exchange markets. The U.S. begins daylight savings time on Sunday, March 10, 2013.
Monday, March 4, 2013
Looking Ahead: March 4 through March 8, 2013
U.S. sequestration and an Italian election didn't rattle the international markets which were buoyed by comments from ECB President Mario Draghi as well as Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. Economic data were mixed to disappointing in Japan, Europe and the UK.
This week brings five major central bank meetings — Reserve Bank of Australia, Banks of Japan, Canada and England and the European Central Bank. Canada and the U.S. will release their employment reports while Australia’s fourth quarter growth data are expected. Global service sector PMIs — the counterparts of those for manufacturing — will provide a snap shot of what is by far the largest part of the global economy.
Monday, February 25, 2013
Looking Ahead: February 25 through March 1, 2013
Equities were mixed last week as investors responded to currency moves, tepid economic data and FOMC minutes. The Eurozone will remain in recession according to lowered forecasts from the EU. Europe’s flash PMIs showed the currency union continues to contract though Germany continues to show slight growth.
Investors will be paying close attention to Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s Congressional testimony on Tuesday and Wednesday, especially after the strong reaction to the minutes of the FOMC’s last meeting. Key Japanese data for January will be published at week’s end. And hopefully, we will know who Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe selects to be his new governor of the Bank of Japan.
Tuesday, February 19, 2013
Looking Ahead: February 18 through February 22, 2013
Investors focused on the currency markets and in particular, the decline of the yen against the euro and U.S. dollar. As expected the Bank of Japan left its monetary policy unchanged at the BoJ waited for the appointment of the new governor and his two deputies. Economic data especially in Japan and Europe disappointed.
Given the declines in GDP, flash PMI indexes will get close attention when they are released Thursday. The German ZEW and Ifo surveys will be in focus given the decline in fourth quarter GDP as investors look for signs of recovery.
Sunday, February 10, 2013
Looking Ahead: February 11 through February 15, 2013
Three central banks met and left their policy interest rates unchanged. The Reserve Bank of Australia left its key rate at 3.0 percent, the Bank of England kept its 0.5 percent rate while the European Central Bank’s rate remained at 0.75 percent as expected. Economic data centered on merchandise trade. China’s January trade data improved and showed both global and domestic recovery. Composite PMI indexes for the most part showed that activity was stabilizing and improving (except in France).
The Bank of Japan meets this week — no policy change is anticipated until a new governor is selected. The Bank of England releases its quarterly Inflation Report. Many Asian markets will be closed to celebrate the Lunar New Year. Mainland China’s financial market will be shut for the entire week while the Hong Kong market will be closed from Monday through Wednesday.
Sunday, February 3, 2013
Looking Ahead: February 4 through February 8, 2013
Equities were mixed last week. The slew of data indicated an improving but uneven global economic landscape. When revisions were taken into account, the U.S. employment report showed that employment growth was better than originally estimated. Other data — with the exception of fourth quarter GDP — showed a growing economy at a stable pace that even the FOMC acknowledged. Elsewhere, the data were mixed but biased towards the positive.
The Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of England and the European Central Bank meet this week. Services PMIs will be released and investors will get a look at this part of the economy in January. Merchandise trade and industrial production dominate data releases. China releases merchandise trade and the consumer and producer price indexes for January.
Sunday, January 27, 2013
Looking Ahead: January 28 through February 1, 2013
The Bank of Japan partially filled market expectations when it adopted a two percent inflation target but disappointed by not adding to its asset purchase plan until 2014. The Bank of Canada as expected left its key rate at 1.0 percent where it has been since September 2010. Economic data indicated an improvement in the global economic picture.
The FOMC holds a two day meeting this week — no policy changes are expected. There is an outpouring of new economic data globally. Investors will be looking to see if the fledgling sprouts of improvement continue. The exception here is Japan where the country is mired in
Monday, January 21, 2013
Looking Ahead: January 21 through January 25, 2013
Markets were mixed last week as economic and earnings data vied for attention. Investors tried to anticipate what the Bank of Japan will do at its meeting at the beginning of the week. Most economic data were positive in the U.S. and China while those in Europe tended to disappoint.
The Bank of Japan meets the first two days of the week. As noted elsewhere, the monetary policy board is expected to add additional stimulus to shake the economy out of deflation and get it growing again. The BoJ and the Government reached a basic agreement Thursday on the substance of an upcoming joint statement on fighting deflation. The document will call for the BoJ to adopt a 2.0 percent inflation target, and charge the central bank's governor with reporting regularly on progress toward this objective. Elsewhere, the Bank of Canada is expected to leave its policy interest rate at 0.5 percent. Flash January purchasing managers’ indexes will be released for China, U.S., Eurozone, France and Germany and will give us our first look at January manufacturing data. The UK reports its initial fourth quarter GDP data.
Sunday, January 13, 2013
Looking Ahead: January 14 through January 18, 2013
It was a mostly quiet week with no new news from either the Bank of England or the European Central Bank. The Bank of Korea also maintained the status quo. European economic data centered on monthly merchandise trade and industrial output data. German manufacturing orders and industrial output disappointed as did UK industrial and manufacturing output.
The spate of merchandise trade and output data continues this week. The pace of new data releases in the Asia Pacific region picks up as China releases its fourth quarter growth data along with key industrial production and retail sales data for December. Australia’s labour force survey will attract wide interest in the financial markets as well.
Tuesday, January 8, 2013
Looking Ahead: January 7 through January 11, 2012
Investors focused on the budget negotiations in the U.S. as the old year wound down. They staged a relief rally when an agreement on taxes was reached. However, no agreement was reached on spending cuts and the debt ceiling. The negotiations will continue.
The Bank of England and the European Central Bank will meet Thursday. No policy change is anticipated from either Bank. New economic data revolves around international trade and industrial production for the most part.
Thursday, January 3, 2013
Tuesday, January 1, 2013
Happy New Year!
Wishing everyone a Happy New Year! Better health, happiness, and better trading. Cheers!
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