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Sunday, December 23, 2012

Looking Ahead: December 24 to December 28, 2012

U.S. budget negotiations dominated the headlines while economic data barely got a glance. The Bank of Japan met and acceded mostly to the wishes of the prime minister elect who will take office on December 26th after a parliamentary vote. The December 24th week is a quiet one with only Japan releasing its monthly slew of reports for November. However, activity will pick up the following week in the New Year. Best wishes for a happy holiday season and New Year.

Monday, December 17, 2012

Looking Ahead: Week of December 17 through 21

The economy is bumping along on a low but positive trajectory. The consumer sector somehow keeps showing more life than you might expect. Manufacturing is sluggish but not negative. And the Fed has been extremely creative in keeping rates low and liquidity in the financial markets. Still, resolution of the fiscal cliff is needed—preferably by Christmas but many would be happy to merely beat the January 1 deadline. Upcoming news is loaded with data on manufacturing, housing, and the consumer. Hurricane Sandy has caused sharp down and up swings in production numbers but net still soft. So, regional Fed manufacturing news from New York, Philadelphia, and Kansas City will garner attention. Housing has been on a moderate uptrend and traders want to see housing keep the recovery going. Updates are posted for housing starts and permits, and existing home sales. The consumer sector recently has been mixed with spending moderately healthy but sentiment dropping, suggesting spending is at risk. This week’s updates include personal income and outlays and consumer sentiment.

Thursday, December 13, 2012

Gold futures trade December 13, 2012 - Gartley pattern on 4 hour chart

Sunday, December 9, 2012

Looking Ahead: December 10 through December 14, 2012

Five central banks met but only the Reserve Bank of Australia trimmed its key interest rate. The European Central Bank lowered its economic growth forecast. Economic data globally were mixed. Employment data in Australia, Canada and the U.S. surprised on the up side. Meanwhile the U.S. budget negotiations continued. The Federal Reserve will meet this week and update its economic forecasts. Elsewhere, flash Markit December manufacturing PMIs are scheduled. In Japan, revised third quarter GDP and the fourth quarter Tankan are among its key data releases. And as the end of the year approaches, the negotiations in Washington will continue to get heightened scrutiny.

Sunday, December 2, 2012

Looking Ahead: December 3 through December 7, 2012

Economic data were mixed. While Japan’s data were better than expected, those in Europe painted a recessionary picture. Unemployment in the Eurozone and Germany climbed but economic sentiment appeared to level off, albeit under the 50 breakeven point. U.S. data were distorted by superstorm Sandy, especially jobless claims and personal income and spending. In any event, investors gave data little notice and instead hung on every word of those taking part in the fiscal cliff negotiations. The first week of the month is always a busy one. The Reserve Bank of Australia, European Central Bank and the Banks of Canada and England will hold their policy meetings. Key manufacturing PMI data for major countries will be released along with PMIs for the services sector.

Monday, November 19, 2012

Looking Ahead: November 19 through November 23, 2012

Markets in the past week were focused on political events in Japan, China, the U.S. and the Middle East where tensions between Gaza and Israel escalated. Economic data were mostly disappointing with both the Eurozone and Japan contracting in the third quarter. U.S. data for October were mostly lower than anticipated thanks to Hurricane Sandy. Next week, the Bank of Japan meets and the Bank of England releases the minutes of its meeting that took place earlier this month. Flash November manufacturing indexes highlight the week’s data — even though it is being released on Thursday — the Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S.

Monday, November 12, 2012

Looking Ahead: November 12 through November 16, 2012

The U.S. reelected Barack Obama to serve a second four year term as President. The financial markets immediately shifted attention to the fiscal cliff and its potentially dire consequences for the U.S. economy unless Congress and the White House can resolve the crisis before the end of this year. The Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of England and the European Central Bank met and decided to leave their respective monetary policies unchanged. While U.S. economic data mostly beat expectations, data in Japan and Europe did not. China’s slew of October data showed a steadying economy. In the upcoming week, Japan along with the Eurozone countries release their first estimates of third quarter gross domestic product. However, investors will most likely be focused on both the European negotiations with Greece and fiscal cliff deliberations in the U.S.

Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Looking Ahead: November 5 through November 9, 2012

Hurricane Sandy captured investors’ attention as the week began and forced New York markets to close for Monday and Tuesday. Despite the difficulties on the U.S. East Coast economic data were released in a timely manner — and they were mostly positive. However, that cannot be said about European data that showed unemployment continuing to grow while manufacturing continued to contract. In Japan, the Bank of Japan found it necessary to increase its asset purchase program. The Japanese government continued to apply pressure on the BoJ, threatening its independence. The big event this week is the U.S. presidential election on Tuesday. Investors are already looking past the election and to the resolution of the ‘fiscal cliff’ at year’s end. Three central banks meet — the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank. China’s monthly deluge of economic data is due along with global services and composite purchasing managers’ indexes. But the outcome of the election and its ramifications will occupy investors.

Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Sunday, October 28, 2012

Looking Ahead: October 29 through November 2, 2012

Equities were lower last week on mixed economic data and disappointing earnings reports. Unease about the European debt situation continued to make investors wary. The Federal Reserve, Bank of Canada and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand chose to leave their monetary policies unchanged. Both UK and U.S. first estimates of third quarter GDP were better than expected. Flash PMIs however, showed continued contraction everywhere but in the U.S. The Bank of Japan meets Tuesday and is expected to add to its asset purchase program. The week is a busy one with key economic data on tap globally along with a continuing onslaught of earnings reports. Among the important data to be released are final manufacturing PMIs globally, Japan’s monthly deluge of new economic data and in the U.S. a slew of reports culminating in the employment situation report on Friday.

Sunday, October 21, 2012

Looking Ahead: October 22 through October 26, 2012

China’s slew of economic data was in traders’ focus during the market week. Investors also awaited developments from the EU summit which took place on Thursday and Friday. U.S. data provided the usual mixed bag but were generally positive, especially on housing.
This week, traders will focus on the FOMC meeting announcement. Also on tap are the Bank of Canada and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand policy decisions. The data highlight of the week will be the sundry flash PMI indexes from Europe and the U.S. The UK will provide its first estimate of third quarter gross domestic product.
 
 

Monday, October 15, 2012

Looking Ahead: October 15 through October 19, 2012

Key data are on tap this week including the German October ZEW survey along with the UK’s labour market report, consumer prices and retail sales. But focus will be on the latest data deluge from China for the month of September and for the third quarter as well. Both the Bank of England and the Reserve Bank of Australia will release minutes of their respective October meetings. The minutes from the BoE will provide some sense from the policy debate earlier this month on how likely the MPC is to expand its asset purchase program at its next scheduled meeting on November 8th. From the RBA, analysts will be looking for more information on why the Bank cut its policy rate a month sooner than was generally expected and will be looking for clues on whether there will be another quarter point cut before yearend.


Sunday, October 7, 2012

Looking Ahead: Week of October 8 through 12

The first major release is midweek with the Beige Book. The Fed is focusing on the labor market and comments on that sector will be highlighted. The next major mover is international trade with the export component the key focus as growth has been wavering in Asia and Europe. Bond traders will pay special attention to the producer price report as headline inflation has bounced in recent months on volatile energy costs. Finally, we get a reading on consumer sentiment for early October. Various surveys recently have indicated modest improvement in the mood of the consumer.

Sunday, September 30, 2012

Looking Ahead: October 1 through October 5, 2012

Investors kept their eyes on the situation in Spain. Economic data were mixed globally. Four central banks are on tap during the first week of October. The Reserve Bank of Australia announces on Tuesday followed by the Bank of England and the European Central Bank on Thursday and the Bank of Japan, Friday. A plethora of purchasing managers’ indexes for September will be released globally. Going into the fourth quarter, investors are looking ahead to see whether bond buying programs announced by the European Central Bank and the U.S. Federal Reserve will be reflected in improving economic data. Mainland Chinese markets will be closed for week-long holidays from Oct. 1 to Oct. 7, while the Hong Kong market will remain closed on Monday and Tuesday.

Saturday, September 29, 2012

How Your Forex Broker Makes Money

Trading forex is great - online access to your account so you can trade anywhere in the world, very high leverage which enables you to make a significant amount of money from a very small account, the trades are commission-free and even the spreads in forex are extremely tight. Given that you, the forex trader, has a number of advantages, have you ever wondered how your retail forex broker makes money? And why are there so many retail forex brokers out there? After all, forex broker advertisements are everywhere and the competition seems to be very stiff. So how, exactly, does your forex broker make money? The answer might surprise you. Your forex broker assumes that you will lose money over the long run when you trade. Given that 95% of forex traders lose money, it is a very safe assumption. Every broker has to decide whether a new account will belong to the group (95%) of traders that loses money, or the group (5%) that makes money. If I gave you a coin and said that it would land on heads 95% of the time, I think you would probably want to keep the coin so that you could use it to win some bets with your friends and 2) always assume the coin would land on heads. This is precisely what your forex broker does. Every new account is assumed to belong to "group B" - those traders that will lose money. Since 95% of the traders belong in this group, your broker is only too happy to assume that you belong in this group. After some time, if you have consistently made profits, your broker will re-assign you to "group A" - these are the lucky 5% of traders who consistently make money. After you have joined this group your broker will lump your trades with all of the rest of group A and hedge against your trades. So, for example, if all traders in group A have bought the EUR/USD your broker will place a trade in the interbank forex market to offset any profits group A make on this trade. Basically, your broker puts up with group A traders but is really interested in gaining group B accounts. This is because if a trader in group B loses $7,000 - that is, he completely blows up his $7,000 account, then the broker gets all of that money. The broker does not make money on the spread; the broker makes money on the losing accounts. This is also why brokers are constantly advertising for new customers. The brokers need "fresh blood" to keep making money, many of the traders in group B will give up on trading or move to another broker. So, the next time you see a forex broker advertisement you will know who they are really after.

Tuesday, September 25, 2012

Looking Ahead: Week of September 24 - 28

Most key sectors get updates this week. With manufacturing slowing down, investors will be looking to the latest reading on durable goods orders along with regional Fed reports from Dallas, Richmond and Kansas City. Consumer sector strength will be assessed in the personal income and spending report along with both consumer confidence and sentiment. Confirmation of recent positive housing reports will come from data on new home sales and pending existing home sales. Finally, the third estimate for second quarter GDP is released but likely will be seen as old news.

Sunday, September 16, 2012

Looking Ahead: September 17 through September 21, 2012

Stocks soared on news that the Federal Reserve is launching another round of quantitative easing. Whether profit taking will follow the beginning of this week remains to be seen. Besides the Fed action, the German Constitutional Court ruled in favor of the ESM — but with caveats. Data from China disappointed, showing weakness — especially in the country’s bilateral trade with the EU. This coming week appears to be calmer. The Bank of Japan meets. Expectations now are that the BoJ will expand its easing program, following the Fed. The major data are the flash purchasing managers’ indexes that will be released Thursday for China, Germany, France, the Eurozone and the United States. Investors also will be watching Japan’s merchandise trade data for new clues to global growth.

Sunday, September 9, 2012

Looking Ahead: Week of September 10 through 14

The consumer sector has shown recent improvement—other than for employment. The week starts off and ends with consumer updates on consumer credit and with Friday’s retail sales and consumer sentiment. Europe is largely in recession and Asia is slowing, so Tuesday’s international trade report will provide news on the latest export numbers which are key to manufacturers. Higher food and energy costs have been threatening inflation numbers and this week’s PPI and CPI reports will provide updates. Finally, the Fed meets a day later than usual and traders will be closely anticipating some form of additional monetary easing when the Fed releases its statement just after noon on Thursday. Chairman Bernanke will be explaining the forecasts and any policy move at 2:15 p.m. ET Thursday.

Monday, September 3, 2012

Looking Ahead: Week of September 3 through 7

In a holiday shortened week, the highlight is Friday's employment report for August. This could be the turning point on whether the Fed eases further at its September 12-13 FOMC meeting. The consumer sector recently has shown signs of carrying more weight in the recovery and we will get additional updates with motor vehicle sales, ADP employment, and initial jobless claims. Manufacturing has been wavering, giving more importance to this week’s ISM and Markit manufacturing surveys. Finally, the construction sector has shown improvement and the construction outlays report will indicate if this trend continues.

Monday, August 27, 2012

Looking Ahead: Week of August 27 through 31

With the manufacturing sector wavering, investors are looking to the the consumer sector to boost the recovery. Key updates include personal income and spending along with consumer sentiment. Housing has shown some new life and Case-Shiller will update on home prices. There are mixed reviews on whether the Fed will implement QE3 at its September FOMC meeting, but this week’s Beige Book may offer hints. GDP gets revised but that is old news unless the revision is substantial. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks Friday at the Kansas City Fed’s annual Fed conference (internal Fed event) and he could hint at another round of quantitative easing.

Monday, August 20, 2012

Looking Ahead: Week of August 20 through 24


The recovery is gaining strength, albeit slowly. Housing finally is rising out of its recession rut and is on a modest uptrend. The consumer sector may not be retreating as feared.  However, manufacturing data have been unclear—this sector may or may not be flattening in the near term. But overall, the economy is doing somewhat better—although that fiscal cliff is still looming.


Housing permits were up in July. Reports on existing and on new homes will indicate if homebuilder optimism is justified. Manufacturing reports have been mixed and the July durables report may add clarity.  Notably, the mid-week release of Fed FOMC minutes could lift or dampen belief in a Fed move at its September FOMC meeting.

Monday, August 13, 2012

Reflection on traders and Olympians


Not unlike Olympians, investors must train themselves to control their emotions. This training begins with the development of an underlying macro philosophy one has of the market. This philosophy leads to a better understanding of one’s own risk tolerance. From there, investors can form an investment strategy and develop a set of suitable and sustainable investment rules (risk management). Lastly, but definitely not least, follow those rules. That’s it -- now perfect it!
Training, as much as it may seem like it, is not the most difficult part; the biggest challenge is accurate self-assessment. This is even more burdensome since no one likes to admit that they’re wrong.  “It wasn’t my fault, the market did so-and-so.”  But owning and learning from one's mistakes is a skill that -- if used, if understood, and if not discounted -- becomes the greatest tool an investor can have.

Sunday, August 12, 2012

Looking Ahead: Week of August 13 through 17

The latest numbers were limited and mixed.  The best news was that exports are still growing.  This is good for the manufacturing sector.  The productivity numbers put company profit growth on the fence.  With unit labor costs trending low, a boost in output and revenues could lead to upside potential for profits.  But lack of output growth leaves profits languishing—bearing in mind that expectations for profits are rather low.

The consumer and manufacturing sectors have been wavering and we get news on those fronts.  The highlight of the week likely is an update on consumer spending with the retail sales report. Consumer sentiment also prints.  Manufacturing news posts with Empire State, industrial production, and Philly Fed.  Housing recently has shown modest improvement and the housing starts report could indicate if that trend continues.

Monday, August 6, 2012

Looking Ahead: Week of August 6 through 10

Equities rebounded on Friday after Thursday’s losses and turned the week into a positive one for most of the indexes followed here. In the Asia Pacific region, only the Nikkei (down 0.1 percent) slipped on the week. All European indexes despite the day to day volatility managed to gain on the week. In North America, the S%P/TSX Composite (down 0.9 percent) and the Bolsa (down 1.2 percent) were unable to recoup all of the week’s prior losses. Gains ranged from 0.2 percent (All Ordinaries and Dow) to 3.9 percent (FTSE MIB).


The reasons for Friday’s rebound were the better than anticipated U.S. employment report and second thoughts about ECB President Mario Draghi’s comments at his post meeting press conference Thursday.

Looking Ahead: Week of August 6 through 10 
A light week of economic news is highlighted by consumer credit and international trade.  Confidence numbers are not great but credit data are hard numbers and could point to moderate consumer strength. Meanwhile, trade data are a big question mark due to weakness in Europe and slowing growth in Asia.  But lower oil prices are likely to come into play.


Sunday, July 29, 2012

Looking Ahead: Week of July 30 through August 3

First Friday is back and that means a highlight is the employment situation. But there will be earlier news on the wavering consumer sector, including personal income, consumer confidence, the ADP private employment report, and motor vehicle sales. Manufacturing also has been wavering and key updates will come from Markit PMI and ISM manufacturing. But at mid-week, competing for the week’s highlight will be the Fed’s FOMC statement and whether there is any new policy initiative.

Thursday, July 26, 2012

How many currency pairs to trade or monitor per day/week?

Is it better to focus just on one currency pair? Or is it better to focus on as many instruments as possible? I don’t think there is a simple answer to these questions, it all depends on each trader, but there are certain guidelines that you can take in consideration to help you feel more comfortable with your system, which will help you trade with more discipline and at the very end, get consistent results. Monitoring only one or two currency pairs/instruments For newbie traders, this is definitely the way to go. As you start looking at charts, you could feel overwhelmed by the amount of information you could get by monitoring many currency pairs, sometimes it is even difficult for veteran traders (go figure), so you need to be careful if you are a beginner trader. So as you start getting acquainted with charts, the Forex market, etc. Probably the best thing to do is to focus only on one, two or three currency pairs. This way you will get to know each currency pair better (each one has its own personality), trading ranges, spread, etc. There is just one slight problem that I think could make a big difference on your results as a trader. What happens if the chosen currency pairs aren’t in a clear market condition? What if you don’t know what the market is likely to do on the following hours/days? You are right, you will force yourself to take trades on those currency pairs, and that, and it’s not good for your trading results. For instance, many (many many) traders only monitor the EURUSD, and you know something, it’s been months and months since I haven’t placed a trade on the EURUSD!!!, why? Because I see no clear condition, I had no idea of what the market could do on the following hours/days (although the market conditions on the EURUSD might change in the following days/week, it’s about to break a clear support level). Anyway, why would I trade a currency pair that I have no idea of its future movements? When there are other currency pairs that are trading in a clear condition… Which one would you choose? I go for the one that has clear market condition. Monitoring many currency pairs/instruments I’m not talking about trading many currency pairs at the same time, I’m talking about monitoring many currency pairs or instruments so that you can determine which ones have the clearest market conditions, which ones are more likely to move up or down, so that you can focus on those currency pairs, and get rid from the ones that have an erratic behavior, or have no clear market conditions. That’s exactly what I do, at the beginning of every trading day, I do analyze the long term charts (daily and 4H charts), and with this analysis I trade to conclude the following: Which currency pairs I’ll trade any particular day On which currency pairs I’ll look for long opportunities and on which ones short opportunities Possible entry levels for each currency pair So, its not like I’m trading all currency pairs at once, instead, I decide which currency pairs I’m trading each day. Some days I end up looking for trade opportunities on 5 currency pairs, sometimes 8, some others 2 or 3, etc. At the end of this analysis, I end up with a trading plan, which helps me trade with more discipline. So the idea is to trade the currency pairs that have a clear market conditions, not just trade a currency pair because you decided to trade it regardless of its market condition. What am I suggesting here? As a beginner trader, it would be best to focus on just a few currency pairs, get to know them: average trading range, volatility, personality, etc. But as you get more experienced, you need to add more possibilities to your arsenal, and of course, only trade the ones that have clear market conditions. What do you think?

Sunday, July 22, 2012

Looking Ahead: Week of July 23 through 27

For the big event on Friday, investors nerves will be tested as they await to see if Q2 GDP tops or falls short of the Q1 sluggish pace. But earlier there will be updates on manufacturing and housing. Whether manufacturing has softened will be updated with the Markit flash PMI, Richmond Fed, durables orders, and Kansas City reports. Housing news includes FHFA house price index, new home sales, and pending existing home sales.

Monday, July 16, 2012

Looking Ahead: Week of July 16 through 20

The bottom line
The recovery continues with modest forward momentum. International trade is expanding but at a slower pace than some months ago. The consumer sector is still positive but also less robust than earlier in the recovery. Inflation is not a threat except at the dinner table. The Fed still has plenty of room to maneuver but many on the FOMC are skeptical, doubting that additional policy moves would do much good and, in the worst case, would create inflation risks down the road.
Looking Ahead
Week of July 16 through 20 Investors will be on heightened alert given the many market movers slated to hit the wires. The updates include consumer, housing and production data including retail sales, housing starts and existing home sales. Regional manufacturing data from the Empire State and Philadelphia Fed plus national industrial output data will update the manufacturing outlook. Additional hints—or not—on QE3 could come via the Fed’s Beige Book on Wednesday.

Saturday, July 7, 2012

Looking Ahead: Week of July 9 through 13

The bottom line Clearly, stronger jobs growth is needed to bolster to the recovery and the economy’s rate of growth. Nonetheless, there has been some improvement recently in housing and manufacturing may not be as sluggish as feared. Consumers are still spending (at least those with jobs). So, the economy is muddling along at a modest growth rate and could pick up strength—especially if the fiscal cliff issue is addressed. However, that issue likely will not be resolved until the last minute. Looking Ahead: Week of July 9 through 13 After Friday’s soft employment report, this week’s highlight may be the Fed’s FOMC minutes (Wednesday) as traders look for any inclination of QE3. Earlier that morning, the trade deficit will add detail to foreign and domestic demand. Lower oil prices may show up in import prices (Thursday) and in the PPI (Friday). Friday’s consumer sentiment reading will indicate whether lower gasoline prices are offsetting weak job growth.

Sunday, July 1, 2012

Looking Ahead: Week of July 2 through 6

The bottom line The latest indicators were mixed with the biggest positives coming from housing. The consumer sector was very sluggish—mostly tied to modest employment growth and special factors on spending. And consumer sentiment slipped. Manufacturing is mixed to net positive but is not seeing the strength it did many months ago. Overall, the recovery is improving but at a low trajectory and slower than hoped. Should this past week’s progress in Europe turn out to be real, that likely will boost global confidence and growth. But as a caveat, we’ve been there before. Looking Ahead: Week of July 2 through 6 Other than Independence Day at mid-week, the highlight is Friday’s employment report which needs to show improvement after the near flat increase in payrolls last month. Consumer spending slowed in May, giving motor vehicle sales (Tuesday) increased importance. After recently mixed regional Fed surveys, traders will look for a stronger ISM manufacturing number (Monday).

Trading Psychology and Discipline

Here is a great video on Psychology and Discipline.

Sunday, June 24, 2012

Looking Ahead: Week of June 25 through 29



Is housing improving? Housing updates continue with pending and new home sales and Case-Shiller. Recent reports on manufacturing have been mixed. Clarification could come from the regional Dallas, Richmond, and Kansas City Feds, as well as the durables orders report. Consumer spending has slowed and this week’s consumer confidence and sentiment numbers could clarify where spending is headed. Also honing in on the consumer will be the personal income report. Also, the Supreme Court could rule on so-called “Obama Care” as soon as Monday as the Court wraps up its current session. This could impact the health care provider sector.

Saturday, June 16, 2012

Looking Ahead: Week of June 17 through 22



Looking Ahead: Week of June 18 through 22 
The Bank of Japan, Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the Swiss National Bank left their respective monetary policies unchanged. However, all referred to the situation in Europe in their post meeting statement and reiterated their preparedness to act should it be necessary. US economic data disappointed for the most part. However, investors looked upon it as more reasons that the Federal Reserve will add stimulus to boost flagging growth when it meets on June 19th and 20th.

In Athens, the election was seen as too close to call. Alexis Tsipras, leader of the main anti-bailout leftist party SYRIZA, said on Thursday the deal with Greece's international lenders, which has helped push the economy into a depression, would not last beyond the weekend. SYRIZA is running neck-and-neck with the mainstream conservatives for Sunday's parliamentary vote, a re-run of an election last month that produced a stalemate in which neither the pro nor anti bailout camps was able to form a coalition. European leaders, however, have warned that Greece will get no help if it reneges. Officials have also hinted that Athens might be granted more time to achieve its fiscal targets if a new government sticks to the core reforms in the program.

Economic news was more on the negative side this past week.  Still, momentum is on the positive side but sluggish.  The big issue in the near term is whether Greek elections favor pro-euro candidates or not.  The outcome will likely impact financial markets more than real activity in the U.S.

Highlights are the highly anticipated Wednesday FOMC statement, FOMC forecasts, and chairman’s press conference. Traders expect at least some modest additional accommodation.  But housing gets second billing with the NAHB housing index on Monday and housing starts the next day and existing home sales and FHFA house prices on Thursday.

Sunday, June 10, 2012

Looking Ahead: Week of June 10 through 15




Bottom line
The week was dominated by central bank activities as investors fretted about slowing economic growth. The festering problems with Spanish banks also put investors on alert. Economic data in Europe disappointed while data from Australia surprised on the positive side. Tensions will build as investors await the June 17th Greek election. But they will also be awaiting the results of France’s parliamentary elections scheduled for June 10th and June 17th to see if President François Hollande will get a majority. The Bank of Japan meets at the end of the week.

Looking Ahead: Week of June 11 through 15
The consumer, manufacturing, and inflation news are highlighted this week. With sluggish employment, retail sales on Wednesday will get extra attention along with sentiment on Friday. Durables orders have been soft, so traders will closely parse industrial production and Empire State. Lower oil prices may be boosting discretionary income so the PPI and CPI reports will be closely watched.

Sunday, June 3, 2012

Looking Ahead: Week of June 4 through 8

Looking Ahead: Week of June 4 through 8

The recovery currently is wobbly but still positive. The consumer appears to be more optimistic than businesses as spending is moderately strong even though hiring has slowed to a crawl. Manufacturing and housing are still expanding but at a sluggish pace instead of moderately strong some months ago. But inflation is softer, giving consumers more spending power and the Fed more room to remain very accommodative. After the past week’s deluge of data, the upcoming week is light. Tuesday’s ISM non-manufacturing report likely garners attention for signs of whether the economy is as weak as Friday’s employment report. Similarly, traders will parse Wednesday’s Beige Book for the direction of growth and the possibility of QE3. At week’s end, the international trade report will give indications of the impact of Europe on exports and whether businesses are optimistic enough to boost imports on their shelves and in their showrooms.

Sunday, May 27, 2012

Looking Ahead: Week of May 28 through June 1

Everything leads up to Friday’s jobs report for May. Traders hope to see improvement from last month’s meager gains. However, before Friday, a slew of reports covering the consumer are posted, including ADP employment, confidence, income, personal spending, and motor vehicle sales. Housing updates include pending home sales and Case-Shiller home prices. For updates on manufacturing, the ISM, Markit final PMI, and Kansas City surveys will be released.

Sunday, May 20, 2012

Looking Ahead: May 21 through May 25, 2012

Stocks swooned last week as risk aversion took hold and sent investors scurrying for safe havens. Economic data were mixed globally. The Bank of Japan meets this week — no policy change is anticipated. Further detail will be available on Eurozone growth statistics as well as flash manufacturing and services PMI indexes for May are on tap. Investors will continue to monitor conditions in Greece, Spain and the other ‘peripheral’ members of the Eurozone. Housing is this week’s focus, starting with existing home sales on Tuesday and new home sales and FHFA at mid-week. Manufacturing updates post with Richmond Fed on Tuesday and then the key durables orders report Thursday along with the Kansas City Fed survey. The week closes with Friday’s consumer sentiment report.

Reasons Why Pro Forex Traders Make Money

Most traders who can’t seem to make any consistent money in the markets already know what they need to do to become successful, but they don’t make proper use of this knowledge. All traders have the motivation to make money in the markets, but most are focusing that motivation on the wrong things. If I can boil down the primary differences between professional traders and amateurs, I would say this; pro traders are motivated by the long-term outcome of their interactions with the markets, whereas amateur traders are motivated by the short-term outcomes. Once you learn that you can only make consistent money in the markets by dropping the impulsive desire to “make money now”, you will cross the threshold into thinking and trading like a professional, and eventually you will become one.

Sunday, May 13, 2012

Looking Ahead: May 14 through May 18, 2012

The crowded calendar focuses on the goods-producing and consumer sectors. April retail sales post Tuesday. Factory activity is updated with Empire State (Tuesday), industrial production (Wednesday), and Philly Fed (Thursday). Housing starts also are released Wednesday along with the Fed’s FOMC minutes later that afternoon.

Monday, May 7, 2012

Looking Ahead: Week of May 7 through 11

The calendar is relatively light but still with key updates. Consumer credit posts Monday—updating consumer willingness to spend. Traders will be watching Thursday's international trade report to see if exports have been dented by a sluggish Europe. The week closes with PPI and consumer sentiment.

Saturday, May 5, 2012

How to become from good to Great!

Learning to anticipate a change in market direction is key if you want to prevent losses. During deceptive markets we should try to avoid trading or use smaller position size. For example side ways markets are typically very difficult to trade because of the choppiness. A trending market allows more follow through and therefore allows more movement. Swing trading should be used only when markets are trending very well. Day trading is best used to take smaller quick gains because the market gyrates and stops us out. Here is a video I found that is worth listening too. Enjoy1!

Sunday, April 29, 2012

Looking Ahead: Week of April 30 through May 4

The focus is on the consumer, starting with personal income and spending on Monday. Motor vehicle sales post Tuesday. ADP gives a hint on private employment at mid-week. And the highlight is Friday’s employment situation for April. Other market movers include ISM manufacturing (Tuesday) and ISM non-manufacturing (Thursday).

Monday, April 23, 2012

EUR/USD Trade April 23, 2012

Looking Ahead: April 23 through April 27, 2012

Equities were mixed last week as investors monitored earnings reports, sovereign bond issues in Europe and mixed economic data from the U.S. and elsewhere. As is usually the case in the last week of the month, there will be a deluge of new economic data. Adding spice this time is a two day FOMC meeting followed by Chairman Ben Bernanke’s press conference. Investors will also be watching the outcome of the Bank of Japan meeting that takes place at week’s end. They will be watching to see what new easing policies the BoJ will announce to push the value of the yen down and inflation up. Peeks at first quarter growth data are on tap in the UK and U.S.

Trading results April.15.12 to April.20.12

No trades this past week. Markets were mixed last week as investors monitored earnings reports, sovereign bond issues in Europe and mixed economic data from the U.S. and elsewhere.

Friday, April 20, 2012

Controlling yourself after a trade

Here is part of an article from Nail Fuller that really hit me. I've had this problems before. Enjoy! I know that most of you have had some good trades and made some money in the markets. But, what did you do after your trade? The honest answer to that question is truly what defines a professional trader. Your mindset right after a trade is at its most fragile, because you are likely either feeling a bit euphoric over your winnings or angry and frustrated over your losses. Granted, you should not experience these emotions too intensely if you’ve manage your risk properly, but you will likely still feel them to some degree no matter what, after all, you are risking your hard-earned money. Whether you win or lose on a trade, you are at the greatest risk to make an emotional trading decision immediately after a trade closes. While there is no miracle-formula for making sure you avoid these emotional trading errors, if you understand and accept the following points you will be far less likely to make them: • If you have just lost on a trade, remember that jumping in the market again to try and “make back” what you lost is an emotional reason for trading, not a logical one. Do not enter another trade right away unless there is a valid price action trade setup that meets the criteria in your trading plan. • If you have just won on a trade, remember that you are not some “perfect” trader who can do no wrong in the markets. Beginning traders tend to get over-confident after a winner or a string of winners, this can cause them to veer of course and “run and gun” rather than trading Forex like a sniper. • Remember, your trading success is not defined by your last trade; rather it is defined by the result of a large series of your trades. To become emotional and react defensively to any one trade is to say that you think your success as a trader hinges on one trade, and it simply does not. You have to learn to take your losses as just a part of doing business in the Forex market. • In regards to taking losses, it will be a lot easier to swallow the inevitable losses if you are only risking an amount per trade that you are truly OK with losing. When you start trading with money that you need for other life expenses, or risking too much per trade, you put yourself at a very great risk for wanting to enter a “revenge” trade after you lose. • Perhaps the best way to control yourself after any one trade is to simply take some time away from trading. Rarely are you going to exit a trade and then get another high-probability opportunity immediately after that. It usually pays to separate yourself from your charts for at least 24 hours after you exit a trade, whether it was a winner or loser. This will give your emotions time to die down and cool off before you begin analyzing the charts gain. Excerpt: http://www.learntotradethemarket.com/forex-articles/part-4-become-professional-trader-putting-it-all-together?awt_l=GcSvQ&awt_m=IxU3aIadwXwtMW

The Power of Introverts

Interesting article about introverts and trading. Study has shown that many successful traders are in fact introverts. They have a more circumspect and cautious approach to risk. Read more: http://healthland.time.com/2012/01/27/mind-reading-qa-with-susan-cain-on-the-power-of-introverts/#ixzz1sZDpSYIX

Tuesday, April 17, 2012

One vs Multiple Currency Pairs

Written by Danielle Franklin
blogs - Currency Pairs
There are many aspects forex traders observe in order to pick the most profitable currency pair. Forex market has endless possibilities and no restrictions on which currency to choose and how many currency pairs to trade. The question is what are the most preferred currency pairs? How to choose the right currency pair? Is sticking to one-pair path beneficial or it is more profitable to multitask?

In order to pick up the currency pair that suits you most, you have to consider the following aspects of forex trading:



SPREAD. Tight spreads ensure to keep your costs down. With smaller spreads you can have more profits due to larger gaps during price volatility and you can also reach your break even point quicker. Most forex brokers offer EUR/USD currency pair with the tightest spread of 2-3 pips.
TREND. It is important to analyze the trend of the selected currency pair in forex market. Forex charts with indicators can ease the process of choosing the most profitable currency pair. Most currency pairs are simply more trendy than the rest.
TRADING SESSIONS. The most profitable time to trade forex is when the market has a lot of trading transactions. Depending on the currency pair, you will have to adopt to the right trading time.
For example:



¨ 7 PM EST to 10 PM EST – Tokie Stock Exchange opens

¨ 8 AM EST to 12 PM EST – NY Stock Exchange and London Stock Exchange open simultaneously (this is the time to trade almost any currency pairs)







Every trader differs with diverse mindset, psychological self-control, trading approach and overall understanding of forex market. Whether you choose to trade one pair or several is entirely up to you. Do not try to imitate other traders you know – your trading style must be picked and chosen by you. Your decision has to be based on what, how and when you wish to trade.

All of us understand that one market is closely correlated to another market. Once you have an experience and understanding of one currency, it seems logical to take advantage of this and trade several pairs. However, most successful traders are fully focused on just one pair (usually EUR/USD). Mastering one-pair forex trading allows you to understand the distinct “personality” of a selected pair and get confident with it. Despite the fact that one-pair traders could most probably use their knowledge to trade any other currency pair, they choose to stick with one.

The main reason for forex traders to focus on one currency pair is that multiple currency pairs requires much more work. Not all traders are able to handle all the information and correlation between currency pairs. Instead of concentrating on one pair, in most cases you spread the attention wide and end up with a headache, lower quality of trades and analysis, and greater risk of under performance because of neglect and loss of both attentive and passive observation of the forex market.

Obviously with one currency pair you might face fewer opportunities; however it doesn’t mean you will be less profitable. Many traders choose to become an expert in just one area rather than being an average in several.

Including other currency pairs to your trading plan may lead to extra pressures you are not always ready for and you might be exposed to less familiar trading style. Generally it isn’t easy to even follow one pair and fully understand all the WHYs involved in real time trading.

I personally tried to watch out for 3 pairs simultaneously and end up being less successful. I was missing out on a lot of information and therefore my personal trading style is just one pair. I am aware of the correlations with other pairs, but right now I only care about one graph. So for me, focusing on just one pair makes me more focused, precise and successful.

That being said, it should be emphasized once again that every trader has a different style. There is no right or wrong way to trade. In may ways trading style of one trader may appear too difficult and even unnecessary to other. All forex trading ways are unique, special and should be personalized according to your agenda.

Sunday, April 15, 2012

Week ahead April 15, 2012 to April 20, 2012

WEEK AHEAD

Retail sales comes to us from the USD and GBP
CBank minutes and rate releases are delivered by CAD, AUD and GBP
Germany’s states its ZEW and ifo business and economic sentiment
Inflation numbers are released in GBP, NZD and CAD
USD has TIC, Claims, Home Sales and Philly Fed Man to deal with

Trading results Mar.08.12 to Mar.13.12

Trading results Mar.08.12 to Mar.13.12
Trade 1 $964
Trade 2 $-500
Trade 3 $-500
Trade 4 $1008

Total profit: $972
Total trades: 4
Winners total: $1972
Losers total: -$1000
Winning percentage: 50%
Risk to reward ratio: 1:1.9

Sunday, April 8, 2012

Who is Taking Your Trades?

Who is taking your trades? Is it you or your trading method?

Every day I see traders blindly following the signals given to them by their trading method. It is almost as if they're mindless robots just jumping in because their method says get in. They throw money into the market without even thinking, and it costs them big.

What is a Traders Job?
A trader's job is not to mindlessly stare at a screen and blindly jump into a trade because their method tells them to. A trader's job is to take their trading method's signal and analyze whether or not the trade is viable.

Being a trader is so much more than having a good trading method. Conquering this market is about being able to fully analyze your trade opportunities first and deciding whether or not to enter second.

Just because you have a method that says "enter on a break of this support/resistance line" it does not mean you have to enter. If your analysis suggests that the trade has a low probability of success you should not take the trade. The issue is most traders do not analyze the market they just follow their trading method. They let their methods own them and they lose.

Before you take a trade you need to be able to look at your chart and get an idea of what is going to happen. Then, and only then, should you consider entering the trade suggested by your trading method. In my method, when I look at an upcoming line break on my chart I ask myself:

1. What happened last time it approached this line/area?
2. What does the candle movement leading up to this point suggest?
3. What does the current price movement suggest?
4. If triggered and entered what possible complications can this trade have?

After doing my analysis, and answering these questions, I ask myself the most important question of all:

"Considering all these things should I take this trade?"

It is not all black and white and you do not enter because your method says enter. The decision to enter rests with you. With every single trade, you need to analyze the market first and decide whether or not to enter second.

Inside you are the tools that will make a world of difference in your trading. With these tools humanity has conquered the world, conquered space, and even conquered nature. The most important of these tools is the human brain. Ninety-nine percent of traders do not use their brain to their full potential.

If you are afraid of using your mind and you want trading to be a 1, 2, 3 simple process then go away. I am serious because this is not the business for you. You will never make it so don't waste your time. The lottery or slot machines are more your game.

If instead you want to be a trader you better start being more inquisitive. It is human nature to ask questions. Don't suppress it in your trading question everything. Use that amazing tool you have locked away in your head and THINK!

You need to think and analyze everything on your chart and you have to learn to put your trading method in its place. You're the boss of you trading method. If it gives you a suggestion you are the one who decided whether or not to take the trade.

Originally posted on 4-13-2010



Read more: http://www.babypips.com/blogs/pipsychology/who-is-taking-your-trades.html#ixzz1rWG12JnA

Trade what the market gives you!

Markets are always changing and last week we had a ton of accouncements that really stired up the market in one way direction. Last Saturday March 31 2012 we had the Chinese Manufacturing PMI preform better than expected and really gapped the price action early Sunday morning. Then we had FOMC meeting and NFP coming out putting the market into a frenzy. With that we had a long weekened! This was the time to scale down positions and be on the sidelines. The market gives what it gives and takes what it takes. The best position during these circumstances is to wait and let the storm ease. It is important that we cannot expected winners all the time and losses are inevitable. Let the market do its thing.

Trading results April.01.12 to April.06.12

Trade results for week of April 1, 2012 to April 06, 2012

Trade 1 Short NZD/USD, -$821
Trade 2 Short NZD/USD, result -$459
Trade 3 Short GBP/USD, result -$404

Total net profit: -$1684
Total trades: 3
Winners total: $0
Losers total: -1684
Winning percentage: 0%
Risk to reward ratio: n/a

Overall a negative week. We will take what the markets gives us. No harm due.

Friday, April 6, 2012

Happy Easter Everyone!


Lets refresh ourselves and start a new. Happy Easter to everyone!

Holiday session

All is expected to be very quiet today with most markets closed for Good Friday, and many traders having already exited for the long weekend. The European calendar is extremely light with no meaningful economic data releases, while things could get a bit more interesting into North America with the US monthly NFP employment report. Still, with equity markets closed and razor thin conditions, any movement on the back of the jobs number will need to be taken with a grain of salt until normal market conditions resume next week. Markets are forecasting a healthy print just over 200k, with no change anticipated to the 8.3% unemployment rate. Any significant departure from the consensus estimate will likely make for some choppy trade on the thin conditions.

We will sit on the sidelines. Do not trade during mixed sentiments, news, and holidays is one of our mantras.

Wednesday, April 4, 2012

Stay away from markets!

Markets have been over bullish for some time and looks to be consolidation. This is a time to sit on your hands and wait for a market direction. Euro/usd has been water falling from 1.33034 ever since and looking to find a bottom. It is continuing to form a low base while heading down. We are looking for a double bottom variation at the bottom for a long setup, however signs show we maybe be bearish after all.

Market Focus for April 4, 2012 Wednesday

ADP and ISM will both offer widely watched indications for Friday's big jobs report.

Tuesday, April 3, 2012

Long GBP/USD April 4, 2012 Tuesday


Currencies fell on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 retreating from four-year highs after the U.S. Federal Reserve said it was less inclined to provide more economic stimulus.
Supportive central bank policies have been a primary catalyst for the S&P 500's surge of 30 percent since October, even though improving economic conditions have also played a part in the rally. Investors still expect a pullback, but markets have remained resilient, often cutting losses going into the close, as they did both Monday and Tuesday.

Judging by today's FOMC minutes that stress economic improvement and improvement in Europe, the Fed is moving away from consideration of further stimulus. The minutes pulled down the Dow which ended 1/2 percent lower at 13,199 and they shaved $25 from gold which ended under $1,650. Lack of new stimulus also hurt demand for Treasuries where Fed buying has helped keep rates low. The 10-year yield rose 10 basis points to 2.29 percent.

Looking for a long trade on GBP/USD
Entry: 1.58914
Stop loss: 1.58679
Target profit: 1.59643

Saturday, March 31, 2012

Trading results Mar.25.12 to Mar.30.12

Trading results Mar.25.12 to Mar.30.12
Trade 1 -$487
Trade 2 $+1144

Total net profit: $657
Total trades: 2
Winners total: $+1144
Losers total: -$487
Winning percentage: 50%
Risk to reward ratio: 1:2.3

Trade Long GBP/USD March28 2012 Wednesday


Long GBP/USD
Entry: 1.58717
SL: 1.58470
Target: 1.59450
Units: 300000
Resulst: +$1144

Trade GBP/USD March 27, 2012


Long trade GBP/USD
Units: 1780000
Entry: 1.58763
SL: 1.58450
Target: 1.59540

Result: Stoped out at 1.58450. $-487

Sunday, March 25, 2012

Trading results Mar.18.12 to Mar.23.12

Trading results Mar.11.12 to Mar.16.12
Trade 1 $1149
Trade 2 $-500
Trade 3 $722
Trade 4 $522

Total profit: $1893
Total trades: 4
Winners total: $2393
Losers total: $500
Winning percentage: 75%
Risk to reward ratio: 1:4.8

Wednesday, March 21, 2012

Disciple in trading involves being discipline in life...boring...but the truth

"This is going to sound counter intuitive but has worked for me since i began trading profitably.

You said : Let's say I have learned all the stuff I had to, I know all the basics, I am good in fundamental / sentimental / technical analysis

This isn't everything. You need that but you forgot the most important thing. And thats having the discipline, patience, and emotional control to be able to apply everything that you know. That is more important than fundamental and technical analysis.

I have an edge in the market and i repeat the process every day. I wake up at the same time, eat at the same time, go to the gym at the same time, and trade at the same time. Even my sleep, my diet, my workout training, is all part of my trading method. Even my free time during the day and weekend so i can have balanced life, is all part of my method. When i leave to go to the beach or the country side on the weekend, is all part of my trading method.

When you get to that level, you become profitable in a mega way. Trading to become mega pro isn't a job, its a lifestyle choice.

If all i had is my method, and technical and fundamental skills, without the rest. I would lose my accounts.

The reason i say all this is because i know it may seem like some god like thing to become successful in this industry, but it can be done, once you do the yards.

I always use the analogy of a pro Olympic runner. To become a pro olyimpic runner might seem like a god like thing, but there are people who do it. You need to be so serious about becoming a pro trader, that it's the equivalent to becoming a pro Olympic runner. Then you will make it.

You said it yourself, "the market has it's own rules". All you need to do is find a way to exploit those rules.

If anyone reading this thinks you can't make money. You won't. Knowing that you will do what ever it takes to learn how to make money in this industry is almost half the battle.

Yoda (star wars) says: You must unlearn what you have learned. A normal 9-5 job mentality and thinking like the 90% who lose is going to be the surest pathway to losing. You must unlearn what you have learned. Trading is almost complete and utter boredom. The doing is in the not doing. It's in the thinking. When you become pro you stop over analysing and all you do is sit there, and wait, and wait, and wait some more until you find the perfect trade."


Read more: http://forums.babypips.com/newbie-island/43737-do-you-have-edge.html#ixzz1ppG14P00

Long EUR/USD March 21, 2012


Long EUR/USD
Units: 160,000
Price: 1.31958
Stop Loss: 1.31633
Take Profit: 1.32265
Result: $721

Tuesday, March 20, 2012

Trade EUR/USD & GBP/USD March 20, 2012



Trade 1: Sell EUR/USD, result $433, 13 pips
Trade 2: Sell GBP/USD, Result $1149, 38 pips

Monday, March 19, 2012

Successful Trading requires patience!


Patience is a really important factor in successful trading. This is where a lot of newbie traders fall victum of crashing their accounts. Once in a while we have the urge to do something out of the box. In trading we must always stay discipline and follow our plan 100%. This plan allows you to draw and setup your trading to precision like a sniper. We wait for our target and we take advantage with super precision. Patience is virtue. If you don't have patience to wait for your setup you might as well quit trading. Its quite that simple.

Saturday, March 17, 2012

Trading results Mar.11.12 to Mar.16.12

Trade 1 $0
Trade 2 -480
Trade 3 +318
Trade 4 +$840
Trade 5 +$1250

Total profit: $1928
Total trades: 2
Winners total: $2408
Losers total: $480
Winning percentage: 60%
Risk to reward ratio: 1:5

Thursday, March 15, 2012

Long NZD/USD March 14, 2012


Long NZD/USD
Entry: 0.81093
Stop loss: 0.8091
Take profit: 0.8147
Result: $318.94 (+900 was possible)

Counter trend trade. Looking for small profit here. Decided to take quick profit since markets are in a downward trend. Looking back I should of left this pair since I was already broke even and could of caught my 1:2 risk to reward afterwards. My bad on this trade was my emotions, just getting out at market order and thinking the market will move in my direction. Remember to execute your plan perfectly.

Sell GPB/USD March 12, 2012


Sell GBP/USD
Entry: 1.56810
Stop loss: 1.5707
Take profit: 1.5619
Result: $-480.62

Didn't follow my edge today and this one got me. Should of traded the resistance on the down trend line. Its alight since its only a small loss. We will live to fight another day.

Wednesday, March 14, 2012

No trading tonight - no setups - Jobless claims coming for GBP/USD

U.K. jobless claims are projected to increase another 5.0K in February and the ongoing weakness in the labor market may instill a bearish forecast for the British Pound as the fundamental outlook for the region remains clouded with high uncertainty. As the Bank of England keeps the door open to expand monetary policy further, a dismal labor report could spur speculation for more quantitative easing, but it seems as though the Monetary Policy Committee will preserve a wait-and-see approach throughout the first-half of the year as central bank officials expect to see a stronger recovery in 2012.

We will sit on our hands tonight and see how the UK jobless claim comes out. Plus no setups means no trades.

Tuesday, March 13, 2012

Market Reflections March 13, 2012

Very strong retail sales data and an upgrade of the economy by the Fed triggered a break out for the Dow which, in what may prove to be a pivotal day for the market, surged past 13,000 with a 1.7 percent gain to 13,177. This is the highest close of the recovery.

But the news isn't all bullish. Though no surprise, the Fed is not expanding QE3 and given the approach of the presidential election, the Fed may well be on hold for the rest of the year. Demand for Treasuries fell with rates rising sharply including a 9 basis point jump for the 10-year yield to 2.13 percent. Lack of new stimulus and rising rates are not good for gold which fell $30 to $1,670. Rising rates are good for the dollar firmed more than 1/2 percent against the euro and nearly 1 percent against the yen.

US Retail Sales Ahead of FOMC Decision Should Not Be Overlooked

FOMC to leave policy on hold; will be watching data closely
Retail sales to take on added significance as far as monetary policy concerned
Euro locked in choppy directionless trade
Bank of Japan leaves policy on hold as widely expected

Although the key event risk for the day comes in the form of the FOMC rate decision, the big market mover might in fact come a little earlier when US retail sales are released. At the end of the day, the Fed is not expected to do anything at all at today’s meeting and it would probably be in their best interest to leave its outlook as is. Right now the Fed is in a position where it needs to start to consider the possibility of signaling an earlier reversal of monetary policy than had been anticipated given the better than expected improvement in the US economy. However, it is still probably too early to make any material changes and a wait and see approach is most likely the best course of action for the time being. At the same time, this does make today’s retail sales data all the more interesting, with any signs of strength out of the numbers to do a good job of reaffirming the likelihood for a near-term shift in the outlook of the Fed and a transition to a less dovish policy.
For now, the Euro has been very well supported on dips below 1.3100 and remains locked in some choppy directionless trade. Ultimately, a break back below 1.2975 or above 1.3300 will be required for clearer short-term directional bias. Elsewhere, the Yen has found some renewed bids on Tuesday after declining over the past several days, with USD/JPY attempting to correct back below 82.00. While there appears to be a very clear medium and longer-term shift in the structure which favors significant USD/JPY upside over the coming weeks and months, short-term studies are stretched and show room for an initial pullback towards 80.00 before a resumption of gains. The Bank of Japan has left policy on hold as was widely expected, while announcing no new monetary easing measures. The central bank did however enhance a credit facility designed to encourage lending to growth industries.

Monday, March 12, 2012

Long EUR/USD March 12 2012 Monday


Today we got stopped out of a EUR/USD trade. We saw price action move above all moving averages, price consolidation, and a variation of the cup and handle pattern. I moved to break even after 23 pips. Unfortnately we got stopped out at break even. No major loss here. We will wait for next day's price action. Wait for you setup patiently and you will be rewarded.

Entry: 1.31603
Stop loss: 1.31319
Target profit: 1.32157
Result: Break even, no profit or loss

Sunday, March 11, 2012

Trading results Feb.26.12 to Mar.02.12

Trade 1 $1538
Trade 2 $462

Total profit: $2001
Total trades: 2
Winners total: $2001
Losers total: $0
Winning percentage: 100%
Risk to reward ratio: 0

Friday, March 9, 2012

Keep a Trading Journal!

MAKE A DIARY OF YOUR TRADES to keep a written on-going track record of your progress. I cannot tell you guys with enough emphasis how important your trading journal track-record is, except to say that if you don’t keep a trading journal or at least regularly analyze your trading history and equity curve, you are extremely unlikely to ever make consistent money in the markets.
The actual process of updating your forex trading journal will help you stay disciplined and organized. This is part of developing the positive trading habits that are so crucial to becoming a long-term profitable trader. I don’t care if you think updating your journal is boring right now, stop complaining and start doing the things that YOU KNOW you need to do to become successful. I can promise you that if you keep screwing around by being unorganized and half-assing it, you are never going to pull the sort of money from the market that you want. You NEED to look at your track record on a regular basis to see something tangible that reflects back to you your ability or inability to trade This will work to keep you on top of your game.

Taking a break tonight! March 09 2012 Thursday

Presumably, the renewed bid tone in the markets over the past 24 hours has been primarily driven off the fact that Greece has secured a 95% take up rate for the debt swap deal. Market participants have found comfort in this fact and the successful passage of the deal will help eliminate any added unwelcome uncertainty in a still shaky global macro environment. However, from here, we are not all that confident in the prospects for additional risk buying on Friday and things are expected to pick up into the latter half of the day with the all important monthly US NFP data, immediately followed by the EU’s final decision on Greece’s second bailout.

I don't see any setups tonight. Non Farm Payroll data coming out and that is a vital news release. We will sit on the sideways and take another break. Lets relax tonight!

Thursday, March 8, 2012

Volatility Expected to Pick Up on Thursday with Major Event Risk

Markets have been mostly locked in some choppy consolidation following Tuesday’s sharp risk sell-off and things could continue in this manner at least until the latter half of the day where a number of major events could finally break the range trade and open a good deal of renewed volatility. The Bank of England, European Central Bank and Bank of Canada are all set to decide on rates and although none of the central banks are expected to change policy (0.5%, 1.0% and 1.0% respectively), market participants will be looking for any signs of added dovishness given the ongoing stresses in the global economy. Perhaps more importantly however, will be the Greek PSI deadline at 20:00GMT. Many now fear that the collective action clauses (CAC) could be triggered, which would force bondholders to agree to haircuts. With the participation rate only at 58%, well short of the 75% required, all eyes are fixated on ISDA to see if they deem this to be a credit event.

We made a one trade on Wednesday night. We will sit on the sidelines now. One trade a day is enough.

Trade Long GBP/USD March 07 2012 Wednesday


Long GBP/USD on 1 hour chart using cross over system. 43 pip gain.
Entry: 1.57468
Stop loss: 1.5731
Target profit: 1.5790
Units: 300000
Result: $1068

Wednesday, March 7, 2012

Ultimate Goal!


My goal in trading is to execute my plan perfectly. If I cannot find my edge or if I don't know what my edge is I am just gambling. Some days there are many opportunities and some days there are only 1 or 2 opportunities. Some days are just sitting on my hands.

Kevin

Avoid the Trading Seesaw!

Have you ever experienced a performance seesaw? Trading seesaw is the cycle of successfully making money for a certain period of time, and then becoming overconfident and careless, which then leads to bad losses.

The "seesaw" is completed when the trader tries to get back "in the zone" by making the necessary effort to execute trades well.

Unlike a kid getting out of simple seesaw though, getting off the trading seesaw can be extremely difficult.

When you are "up" and are winning trades, you easily become wrapped up in your trading results. Your string of winning trades can make you overconfident, which can tempt you to start cutting corners and stop doing the processes that initially made you win.

Once you have reached a very high level of success, you'll probably fall back down to earth on your behind due to mistakes and maybe even a big loss. It is only in this "down" stage that you realize your mistakes and return to what you were doing previously that made you profitable.

Take this trader friend of mine named Rob (not his real name, of course). He has been live-trading for around 2 years, yet he has to end a year with a significant profit. During the first year, he was up by 0.50%. On his second year, he was down 0.25%. Needless to say, his performance has been less than stellar.

When I looked at his month-to-month performance, however, I saw that he would have 3 to 4-month winning streaks where he'd gain around 5% to 7%, followed up by 2 to 3 months of 6% to 10% losses.

This prompted me to ask him if he found something odd in his performance.

His response was surprising. He simply said that it was just how the cookie crumbled-sometimes he'd win, sometimes he'd lose. But I did not see it that way. I realized that he was stuck in a performance seesaw.

If you think you're experiencing the same scenario I stated above, don't fret.

One thing you can do to avoid the trading seesaw is to focus on the process. Some traders continually check their trading and psychological journals for signs that they might be deviating from their usual strategies. Others even score themselves on each trade to make sure their trading plans are being followed.

Another way to avoid the trading seesaw is to make sure that trading isn't your only measure of your self-worth. Try to find a sense of achievement and satisfaction in your relationships, work, and other hobbies that you might have. This way your ego won't be tied to your trading performance and you'll be more emotionally resilient in winning and losing trades.

As I said last week, trading is a grind where focusing on the process is your best friend. Having winning or losing streaks shouldn't hinder you from doing what works and improving what doesn't work for your trades.

It takes effort, emotional resilience, and most of all, FOCUS, in order to avoid the trading seasaw and become a consistently profitable trader over time.



Read more: http://www.babypips.com/blogs/pipsychology/avoid-the-trading-seesaw.html#ixzz1oQLrSgnw

Wednesday Could Be Day of Consolidation With Key Event Risk Ahead


After a huge sell off markets are moving sideways. ADP's Non-Farm payroll estimate will take the morning's focus, but watch near day's end for consumer credit which has been pivoting much higher in recent months. We will watch from the sideways and wait for market direction.

Trade EUR/USD March 6, 2012 Tuesday


Short EUR/USD using crossover system on 1 hour charts. Gain 62 pips.
Entry: 1.32048
Stop loss: 1.3222
Units: 250000
Target Profit: 1.31432
Result: $1538.86

Friday, March 2, 2012

How risk reward always works in your favor!


Here are results from my trading from Feb 26, 2012 to March 02, 2012.

Trade 1: $1002
Trade 2: -$542
Trade 3: -$971
Trade 4: $2920
Trade 5: $225
Trade 6: $842

Total 6 trades
4 winners and 2 losers, 4/6=67% winning percentage
Lost total $613
Win total $4989
Risk to reward 1:8
Overall total $3476

Monday, February 27, 2012

The 22 Rules of Trading

1. Never, under any circumstance add to a losing position.... ever! Nothing more need be said; to do otherwise will eventually and absolutely lead to ruin!

2. Trade like a mercenary guerrilla. We must fight on the winning side and be willing to change sides readily when one side has gained the upper hand.

3. Capital comes in two varieties: Mental and that which is in your pocket or account. Of the two types of capital, the mental is the more important and expensive of the two. Holding to losing positions costs measurable sums of actual capital, but it costs immeasurable sums of mental capital.

4. The objective is not to buy low and sell high, but to buy high and to sell higher. We can never know what price is "low." Nor can we know what price is "high." Always remember that sugar once fell from $1.25/lb to 2 cent/lb and seemed "cheap" many times along the way.

5. In bull markets we can only be long or neutral, and in bear markets we can only be short or neutral. That may seem self-evident; it is not, and it is a lesson learned too late by far too many.

6. "Markets can remain illogical longer than you or I can remain solvent," according to our good friend, Dr. A. Gary Shilling. Illogic often reigns and markets are enormously inefficient despite what the academics believe.

7. Sell markets that show the greatest weakness, and buy those that show the greatest strength. Metaphorically, when bearish, throw your rocks into the wettest paper sack, for they break most readily. In bull markets, we need to ride upon the strongest winds... they shall carry us higher than shall lesser ones.

8. Try to trade the first day of a gap, for gaps usually indicate violent new action. We have come to respect "gaps" in our nearly thirty years of watching markets; when they happen (especially in stocks) they are usually very important.

9. Trading runs in cycles: some good; most bad. Trade large and aggressively when trading well; trade small and modestly when trading poorly. In "good times," even errors are profitable; in "bad times" even the most well researched trades go awry. This is the nature of trading; accept it.

10. To trade successfully, think like a fundamentalist; trade like a technician. It is imperative that we understand the fundamentals driving a trade, but also that we understand the market's technicals. When we do, then, and only then, can we or should we, trade.

11. Respect "outside reversals" after extended bull or bear runs. Reversal days on the charts signal the final exhaustion of the bullish or bearish forces that drove the market previously. Respect them, and respect even more "weekly" and "monthly," reversals.

12. Keep your technical systems simple. Complicated systems breed confusion; simplicity breeds elegance.

13. Respect and embrace the very normal 50-62% retracements that take prices back to major trends. If a trade is missed, wait patiently for the market to retrace. Far more often than not, retracements happen... just as we are about to give up hope that they shall not.

14. An understanding of mass psychology is often more important than an understanding of economics. Markets are driven by human beings making human errors and also making super-human insights.

15. Establish initial positions on strength in bull markets and on weakness in bear markets. The first "addition" should also be added on strength as the market shows the trend to be working. Henceforth, subsequent additions are to be added on retracements.

16. Bear markets are more violent than are bull markets and so also are their retracements.

17. Be patient with winning trades; be enormously impatient with losing trades. Remember it is quite possible to make large sums trading/investing if we are "right" only 30% of the time, as long as our losses are small and our profits are large.

18. The market is the sum total of the wisdom ... and the ignorance...of all of those who deal in it; and we dare not argue with the market's wisdom. If we learn nothing more than this we've learned much indeed.

19. Do more of that which is working and less of that which is not: If a market is strong, buy more; if a market is weak, sell more. New highs are to be bought; new lows sold.

20. The hard trade is the right trade: If it is easy to sell, don't; and if it is easy to buy, don't. Do the trade that is hard to do and that which the crowd finds objectionable. Peter Steidelmeyer taught us this twenty five years ago and it holds truer now than then.

21. There is never one cockroach! This is the "winning" new rule submitted by our friend, Tom Powell.

22. All rules are meant to be broken: The trick is knowing when... and how infrequently this rule may be invoked!

Exerpt by Dennis Gartman

http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/rules.html

Wednesday, February 22, 2012

Or we trending or consolidating?


Figuring out what kind of direction we are in the market is very important to become a successful trader. In my past years I would trade against the trend. Remember the trend is your friend. If you can follow this simply rule you will have much higher probable winning trades. Now that is much easier said than done. For example the last few weeks on the AUD/USD we have been going sideways. Trying to trade this using trends wouldn't work. In the chart you will find we are bouncing between 1.08167 and 1.06450. After you decide what kinda of market we are in you can beginning applying the best system suited for that market. I have several methods to trade the different types of markets. Remember like a handyman you need to learn what the market is doing and then use the correct tools to decipher the market. You would never use a hammer on glass would you? Most new traders try to fit their tools onto the market to see which one fits and have no idea what they are using. The master trader rather use their knowledge and experience and decides which tool is the best. They have mastered their trading tools.

Short USD/JPY


Looking for a short trade on USD/JPY on the 5 minute chart. Lets see what happens.
Entry: 80.008
Stop loss: 80.04404
Profit target: 79.994
Units: 2890000
Result: $1589.64 profit.

Wednesday, February 15, 2012

Long AUD/USD


Looking for a long on the AUD/USD.
Entry: 1.06725
SL: 1.06446
TP: 1.07183
R/R: 1 to 1.64
Units: 100,000
Risk $250
Reward: $450

Markets getting ready to roll over!


We've been on a uptrend since December 15, 2011 on the Aussie. Some pull back is needed to to help alleviate all the market buy pressure. Price could not hover above 1.0841 and now we are cosolidating between 1.0841 and 1.06372. Take note at the MACD histogram. We are finally under the zero line which means a change in trend. I am looking for shorts right now. The sentiment index is showing 40% long, and 60% short which means we are net long still. I am looking for short entry on the 5min. on AUD/USD. Lets see what happens.

Sunday, February 12, 2012

Why trade Forex?


If you've ever traveled to another country, you usually had to find a currency exchange booth at the airport, and then exchange the money you have in your wallet. When you do this, you've essentially participated in the forex market! The foreign exchange market, which is usually known as "forex" or "FX," is the largest financial market in the world. Compared to the measly $74 billion a day volume of the New York Stock Exchange, the foreign exchange market looks absolutely ginormous with its $4 TRILLION a day trade volume. Check out the graph of the average daily trading volume for the forex market, New York Stock Exchange, Tokyo Stock Exchange, and London Stock Exchange. The currency market is over 53 times BIGGER! The Forex market is always liquid and trades 24 hours a day unlike the 6.5 hours of the stock market. You are able to set your own hours instead of following stock market hours. Also Forex is unlikely to gap up or down which can cause huge draw downs. Many systems can be implemented into Forex because the price action is very predictable and trends very well. Unlike the over +2000 stocks, you can only focus on the main pairs of the Forex which makes life much easier. Sure there are other markets out there, but Forex probably provides the best liquidity and is less risky considering we don't abuse the leverage involved with Forex. We will get into leverage in another article.

Remember we are traders and masters of risk!

Long AUD/USD


Looking for a long trade near bottom. We have a double bottom with strong support and over sold on stochastic. Lets take the trade and see what happens.

Entry: 1.06900
SL: 1.06618
TP: 1.07531
1:2.25 RR

Thursday, February 9, 2012

Focus on 1 pair...make life easier

Sometimes life is easier without having to multitask too much. Some people are well organized while others not as organized. Some traders trade a multitude of pairs while some prefer a single pair. Through my experience trading one pair makes the most sense. You get to know the pair inside and out and know its short comings. Everything is simplified and that way it makes life easier to make more pips. Next time if you find yourself wandering too much which pairs to trade, try focusing on one pair. You sure will be more efficient.

Remember we are traders and masters of risk!

Wednesday, February 8, 2012

Be patient, be patient, be patient...

Patience is a critical part of successful trading. Now some people have a lot of patience doing other activities but when involved with money its always the other way around. People want to make money fast. They don't want to wait. It is a natural human tendency to hurry. Heck we all want to get to our destination faster and save more time. However the truth of the matter is that successful trading requires incredible super duper patience. You need to look for the most high probable trades out there. From my experience trading 2-3 times a week is most ideal. I find the best trades happen every 2-3 days. Even trading once a week is good. We don't want to be machine gun traders shooting at everything we see. You want to be a sniper. Yes a sniper. Trade slow motion and you are able to plan ahead and therefore you always get the best fill price. Patience is virtue.

Remember we are traders and masters of risk!

Long AUD/USD


We are still on a uptrend. Looking for a pull back entry at support between 1.07502 and 1.07366.
Entry: 1.07502
SL: 1.07366
TP profit: 1.07792

Short USD/CHF


A fresh wave of optimism has been injected into the Euro, with the single currency outperforming in recent trade on the back of legitimate expectations that a Greece deal is finally near. Greek party officials are slated to meet later today to facilitate the agreement of the bailout, which one party leader says should not end in humiliation for the country. Also seen propping the Euro is a report from the WSJ which says that the ECB might consider making concessions on Greek debt.

Overall USD is still trending down. We will take short trade.

Looking for a short trade on USD/CHF.
Entry: 0.91441
SL: 0.91544
TP: 0.91123

Lets see what happens.

Welcome to Forex Pip Alert!

Greeting to all the readers out there in trading land! I've decided to write this blog to share my experiences and knowledge in the world of Forex trading. A little background about myself first. Started trading equities back in 2007 right before the great market crash of 2008. Those were some volatile times I might add. Spikes in price gyrated up and down like I never seen before. Then I came across Forex and this was the market that suited my personality. The next few years were dedicated to learning indicators, money management, and psychology. After years of study I can finally say that I've reached some consistent success as a trader. I hope I can share my experiences with others. Please feel free to leave comments and discuss. Thanks and trade with confidence!

Remember we are traders and masters of risk!